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Presidential Horse Race 2016: Why Henry David Thoreau is not relevant in analyzing the 2016 election

Looking back on the events of last week, you could sense a shift in the momentum of the 2016 presidential race taking place. Of course there was Donald Trump’s triumphant venture to Mexico where he stood alongside Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto in an unprecedented “state visit” from a presidential candidate.

Then there was Trump’s immigration speech in Arizona in which he reinforced his campaign promise to not extend amnesty to illegal aliens. Conservatives loved it. The GOP base was secured at last.

Henry David ThoreauThe Republican nominee rounded out the week with a well-received trip to a black church in Detroit and a tour of the city provided by good friend and supporter Ben Carson.

And then there was also Crooked Hillary’s equally bad week where more ethical issues cropped up (the FBI now says she may have sent emails from 13 different devices and aides disposed of some by smashing them with a hammer) and she all but disappeared from sight, allowing Trump to dominate the headlines – this time in a positive way. Lastly, to cap it off, Hillary coughed her way through a rally on Monday, adding more fire to the already hot rumors of her poor health and stamina.

Through all of this, I felt Trump’s poll numbers couldn’t help but go up. And sure enough, they did.

Jennifer Agiesta of CNN reports, “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll…

“The topsy-turvy campaign for the presidency has seen both Clinton and Trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though Clinton has topped Trump more often than not. Most recently, Clinton's convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll. Clinton's lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for Trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for Clinton from several high-profile Republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy.”

I couldn’t help but chuckle when Agiesta described Trump’s lead as a “scant” two points. “Scant” or not, two points seems like a hundred considering the deep polling hole Trump was in just a month ago. Those days seem like ancient history now. All it took was a change at the top of the campaign management and more discipline from the candidate himself (by using a teleprompter, among other things).

It’s what many of us #NeverHillary people have been saying needed to happen all along. Trump isn’t necessarily a bad candidate when he sticks to the issues instead of launching himself on poorly considered attempts at humor, like last month’s “maybe the Second Amendment people will take care of Hillary” quip during a rally in North Carolina.

The CNN survey also revealed Trump has a 20-point lead over Clinton with self-identified independent voters. Both candidates enjoy at least 90 percent support from their party members. In other words, this is turning into a standard Republican versus Democrat election.

But there’s only one problem with this fact – for Hillary, at least. Agiesta reports on the one statistic that will win the election for Trump if it doesn’t change before Election Day: “A majority of Clinton's supporters say they're less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of Trump's backers say they're more excited this time around (56%).”

Excitement for Trump, who represents change, will gradually increase in the next two months. Enthusiasm for Crooked Hillary will only continue to recede because she’s such an awful candidate. It’s pretty clear to see at this point. The upcoming presidential debates could change the course of the election, but as of now it certainly looks like Trump is rising.

Despite the obvious Trump uptick, the utterly confused and misguided #NeverTrump folks at The Resurgent seem to have settled on a new plea. Having completely failed at their pre-GOP convention attempts to “free the delegates” and force Trump’s nomination to be thwarted, now they’re resorting to calling for Trump to step down in favor of… running mate Mike Pence.

Erick Erickson writes, “If Donald Trump truly wants to stop Hillary Clinton, he needs to withdraw from the race at once. His running mate, Mike Pence, is vastly better on the campaign trail, makes for a far better candidate, and would be a vastly more competent President. Early voting starts soon. Before those first votes are cast, Donald Trump needs to exit the race and give the GOP a fighting chance, which his candidacy does not provide.

“If Trump fails to exit the race, the RNC needs to redirect its funds to save the Republicans’ control of the congress and stop wasting money on a loss leader like Trump. The polls are not rigged and Donald Trump’s failure to benefit from the collapse in support for Hillary Clinton shows just how bad his candidacy is.”

It’s funny how Erickson has suddenly become a Pence fan because the conservative media personality panned the selection of the Indiana Governor as Trump’s running mate when the announcement was about to be made in July.

I guess some things do change in #NeverTrump land. I agree that Mike Pence would make a very fine president – but not before he serves as vice president first…hopefully for eight years.

And showing that maybe a “dump-Trump-for-Pence” movement is a new strategy at The Resurgent, fellow publication writer and #NeverTrumper Steve Berman, after once again declaring Trump “wicked” and also lambasting Crooked Hillary, concluded his piece (titled “America Is Headed Into Wickedness”) by saying, “What would it take for Trump or Clinton to convince me they’re not wicked? Should either of them quit the race, then I’d at least consider the possibility.”

To demonstrate how far out of whack Berman is, he also said he would actually prefer Obama to Trump and Hillary this year…

In addition, Berman probably thinks he’s clever by quoting American transcendentalist Henry David Thoreau in his argument, as if the wisdom of a man who spent his life avoiding taxes and sitting around thinking about stuff for a living is going to contribute any value to analyzing the binary choice presented by this year’s election.

Somehow I doubt an anarchist like Thoreau could have foreseen the very modern issues we face such as illegal immigration and its consequences for all of the regular folks who are just trying to scratch out an existence so they can afford to take a vacation at a place like Walden Pond. And if Thoreau called for a “just government” back then, would he like what he sees with Crooked Hillary now?

I think it’s great that Donald Trump is rising in the polls and I believe it will continue through Election Day – and that Trump will end up winning the popular vote. Will it work with the Electoral College? No one can tell for sure…but momentum is momentum and Trump will likely surprise people by how well he does in certain states.

We’ll know for sure two months from tomorrow.

Trump detractors already speculating on his post-election media empire

Americans are yet to cast their votes and the Electoral College isn’t even close to convening and already people are speculating that Donald Trump intends to turn his potential election loss into Trump media gold.

In a very cynical look at Trump’s motivations for running for president, Myra Adams wrote in the Washington Examiner, “Trump's impending defeat is leading to a chorus of media speculation about his post-election plans. The two most oft-cited assumptions are:

“Trump will not quietly fade into the background.

“Trump will eventually launch a ‘Trump TV’ media venture.”

Adams cites a source with knowledge inside Trump’s campaign that apparently is eager to talk about the “what comes after” possibilities of this year’s election when Crooked Hillary becomes president and Trump is left complaining loudly about losing.

The article sounded kind of like a hatchet job, unusual for something that appears in the normally reliable Washington Examiner.

Upon doing a little research, however, it turns out Myra Adams formerly worked for the George W. Bush and John McCain campaigns and also appears to be a #NeverTrumper. It makes sense, since her “report” citing a Trump campaign source is just dripping with #NeverTrump-like sarcasm and contempt, strongly implying that Trump doesn’t really care about winning the election. Instead, Adams insinuates Trump just wants to increase his brand and make money off the tens of millions of people who will vote for him in November’s election.

Adams’ establishment bona fides were confirmed when I discovered she’d advocated for a John Kasich-Marco Rubio ticket. She also penned this piece at the #NeverTrump den of snakes otherwise known as RedState, where she predicted unprecedented violence in this year’s election.

It hasn’t happened. And Trump isn’t running just to turn his year-long campaign into some future TV venture to spotlight himself. And even if he did start up “Trump TV” after a loss, who could blame him?

Though Donald Trump will never be known as the leader of a new conservative movement, there’s little doubt his candidacy has given voice to the concerns of millions of conservatives and American populists who have seen their country eroding right before their eyes over the past two decades.

To the extent that “Trump TV” would continue that mission, so be it. If establishmentarians and #NeverTrumpers like Adams want their own TV channel, let Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney get together to “establish” one. The only problem is no one would want to watch it.

Crooked Hillary made her own health bed; she should be made to sleep in it

By now it’s old news that Hillary Clinton had another coughing spell on Monday. Though the roughly three minute long incident in itself wouldn’t be enough in any campaign to make someone question whether she’s up to the job, this latest health episode only opens her up to further rumors that well, maybe she’s just too sick to be president.

Some of the speculation in this regard she brought upon herself.

David French writes at National Review, “A candidate for president can’t use her health as a sword and a shield — with surrogates indignantly denouncing health questions as ‘out of bounds’ even as the candidate herself cites her health as a reason that she can’t recall information material to a criminal investigation. Hillary Clinton raised her own health as an issue in the course of an FBI investigation that had the potential to not only put her in jail but also sway the course of a presidential election…

“[W]e have evidence that a candidate for president suffered concussion and/or blood-clot-induced memory lapses before Election Day. That makes her medical condition immediately and urgently relevant. We’re way past conspiracy theories now. The genie is out of the bottle, and Hillary Clinton owes the American people transparency.”

David French is no Trump advocate having once been mentioned as a possible #NeverTrump replacement candidate for the GOP nominee should the movement decide to back an alternative independent challenger.

But in this, French is exactly right. Hillary’s health has become an item of legitimate concern, not only for her purported memory lapses during her FBI investigation, but also for her future ability to function as president. When those nuclear codes are never far from your person, you can’t be in a concussion induced semi-coma waiting for a moment of clarity.

And no, having Bill nearby doesn’t make the problem seem less serious. He’ll be out shaking down donors for the Clinton Foundation...or visiting a special friend.

For what it’s worth, Donald Trump Jr. said on Tuesday that Hillary’s health is fair game to talk about. “[O]f course it's fair game. This is a person that has to lead the free world. There's a reason that they hide her, there's a reason they don't let her speak to people. It's because she's not very likable when she does that...

“I don't think you've ever seen a presidential candidate that has been as hidden from the people who are supposed to be her would-be constituents than Hillary Clinton and you've got to question why that is.”

I personally think Hillary’s physical condition is the primary reason she hasn’t been seen much in the media lately. Frankly, her handlers are likely terrified that if she holds a press conference or is over-exerted for any period of time, she might fail in some capacity.

One more “short circuit” and the whole election could be history.

At any rate, Crooked Hillary’s health will continue to be talked about as long as she can’t demonstrate that the sickness rumors are false. I’m betting she can’t do it – because they’re true.

Hillary Clinton’s policies will definitely favor non-citizens over Americans

Finally today, perhaps one of the reasons why Crooked Hillary is so sick is because her opponent isn’t like Republican candidates of the recent past in allowing her to keep her blatantly obvious flaws hidden from public view.

Donald Trump was at it again on Tuesday in telling an audience that Hillary wants to treat illegal aliens better than veterans.

Jonathan Swan of The Hill reports, “Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that both President Obama and Hillary Clinton want to treat illegal immigrants better than veterans.

“’You have illegal immigrants that she wants — and he wants — treated better than veterans,’ Trump told a town hall audience in Virginia Beach, Va.”

Whether or not Trump’s claim is true regarding Hillary’s preferences for treating illegals better than vets, one thing is incredibly clear: Clinton’s policies towards non-citizens will be seriously expensive, which will provide less money for other important matters like taking care of veterans.

Just the refugee resettlement program alone eats up a huge chunk of the federal pie. If that isn’t favoring non-citizens over veterans and residents of the inner cities, I don’t know what is.

Policies have consequences. Crooked Hillary can talk about “keeping families together” and being compassionate towards Muslim refugees, but all of these proposals cost money. A lot of money.

Elections are always about priorities and where the money is spent – or if it is to be spent. Politicians talk like there is an unlimited supply of money for their programs. There isn’t.

So when Trump says Hillary wants to treat illegal immigrants better than veterans, it isn’t just hyperbole. Hopefully more Americans will understand the difference before Election Day.

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