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Presidential Horse Race 2016: Attention Donald Trump – Jobs + immigration + fighting terrorism = win on November 8

For all of last week’s media bloviating about how well Hillary Clinton did in the first presidential debate vis-à-vis Donald Trump, she didn’t end up moving the polls by all that much.

Jonathan Easley of The Hill reported on Friday, “Post-debate surveys show the 80 million viewers who tuned in largely believe that Clinton got the best of Trump, and early returns show that sentiment is filtering into the national horse-race polls and the surveys of battleground states.

Donald Trump“Pollsters caution that it’s still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the long-term impact of the debate, and note the movement in Clinton’s direction has been modest.”

Sure enough, a quick look at the Real Clear Politics average shows Crooked Hillary with around a 3-point advantage, which if memory serves correctly, is about a point higher than before the debate and still within the margin of error of most polls.

The slight uptick in support for Hillary was somewhat expected since the pundit class almost universally panned Trump’s performance and the balance of the post-debate spin has been practically singularly focused on former Miss Universe-turned-felon-turned-Playboy model-turned Hillary supporter and pretty face shill Alicia Machado.

As I wrote on Friday, it’s astonishing how people in this country have such unbelievably short attention spans, seemingly caring more about what Trump supposedly said (no proof whatsoever that he called Machado ‘Miss piggy’ or ‘Miss housekeeping’ as Hillary claimed) twenty years ago concerning a pudgy beauty queen than what Crooked Hillary labeled tens of millions of Americans just a few weeks ago (remember the “deplorables” comment?).

For those who haven’t seen Trump’s actual remarks on Machado, here is the video (from CNN, no less). It’s highly recommend viewing if you haven’t seen it. Anyone find it offensive?

At the risk of getting off track – like Trump often does, unfortunately – I don’t want to belabor the point or this subject, but in talking about Machado’s weight, Trump was merely trying to protect the brand of the Miss Universe Pageant in which he had invested a lot of money and wanted to make sure it retained its integrity.

Fast forward to last week and the smiling, laughing Machado we saw in the 1997 video has come full circle to bashing Trump and providing Crooked Hillary with fodder for “fat shaming” attacks.

Trump’s current issues with the Machado episode stem from his attempt to explain what happened back then rather than just using some sort of “I could have handled it more delicately” excuse, just like Hillary callously dismisses her email scandal as “I made a mistake and I won’t do it again.”

To say this whole affair is stupid and irrelevant is an understatement, but to our tabloid obsessed news media it's attention grabbing. Ever since declaring his intention to run for president, Donald Trump has almost singularly commanded the attention of the American public in both good and bad ways. If the news people have footage of Trump talking about a woman’s weight from twenty years ago, you better bet they’re going to use it.

But I also can’t help but think if this is the best the media has for an “October surprise,” they should be prepared for a boomerang effect.

In all of this, including the slight post-debate surge in the polls for Hillary, this has “backlash” written all over it. As soon as the public wakes up to the fact they’ve been duped and deprived of an entire week’s worth of substantive discussion on the issues, they’re going to concentrate even harder on the things that matter.

And Hillary will suffer for it.

As I’ve said all along, as Election Day draws nearer Americans aren’t going to focus on what Trump said about Alicia Machado’s extra pounds from decades before. They’re similarly not going to think much on what Trump said about the Khan family in July. They’re also not going to give much credence to Trump’s statements on anything except for his substantive policy proposals that he continues to produce.

This can be said at least for those voters who are still persuadable and examine the totality of the candidate portfolios.

This group is likely to focus on Hillary herself, because no matter how hard the Democrats try to distract attention, this election is about her, not Donald Trump’s temperament.

Signs already indicate Crooked Hillary’s base isn’t overly pumped about turning out for her and I doubt the media blowup over Alicia Machado is going to change things in this regard.

Paul Bedard of the Washington Examiner reported on Friday, “Uninspired by their choice for president, Democrats who ‘will definitely vote’ in the fall election is at a 16-year low, according to a new [Gallup] survey.

“Just 65 percent of Democrats plan to vote in the election, and it's just 47 percent among all voters aged 18-34, a trend that has the party worried about the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Rodham Clinton.”

It should be noted Republican enthusiasm is down as well, though by a much smaller margin than is the Democrats’. This fact should definitely figure into the pollsters’ turnout models in assessing the size of the electorate, though it doesn’t seem to be registering in the most recent survey results.

Another factor that will influence Democrat turnout is Hillary’s continued pandering to the African-American vote, which could just as easily produce yet another backlash.

In remarking on Hillary’s “implicitly biased” debate comment, Roger L. Simon writes in PJ Media, “Underlying all this is a ruthless attempt to encourage that most pernicious, self-defeating and self-fulfilling prophecy that African-Americans will always be victims.  And if they are victims, they always vote Democrat, the party of victimhood. (If they don't vote Democrat, they support professional victimhood organizations like Black Lives Matter until the proper deals are made and they do vote Democrat again, a roundelay of unhappily ever after.)

“The result of all this? Bodies in the street. A lot of them. Almost all black.”

It’s safe to say elections always turn on certain events and I don’t give the American electorate a great deal of credit for tremendous depth in determining who the best candidate is.

But in the end, I don’t believe the crucial factor in next month’s election will be whether Donald Trump called someone fat in 1996. It will be because of the issues and the economy. And on that scale, Hillary will most certainly weigh very heavy on peoples’ minds, indeed.

Workforce participation numbers reinforce Trump’s economic message

Lost in the shifting horse race numbers after the first presidential debate is the unvarying fact that many people in the key industrial swing states are heartily dissatisfied with Hillary’s status quo policy arguments and don’t care a whole lot about what Donald Trump uttered years ago about an overweight beauty queen.

These people are much more interested in what the candidates are saying now – and they’re not taking too well to Hillary’s attempt to steer the conversation towards Trump’s foibles from yesteryear.

Charmaine Yoest writes in National Review, “Because this election is obviously unusual, it’s easy to miss one of the underlying factors fueling the Trump phenomenon: the huge decrease in labor-force participation. Today there are 94 million people not in the labor force. That’s up from 78 million in January of 2008, at the start of President Obama’s first term. These numbers help tell the story of Trump’s remarkable, enduring success. And they may also chart an Electoral College path to his victory in November…

“When we add the unemployed to the 94 million Americans not in the labor force, the number of those not working tops an astonishing 100 million. When Trump promises to add 25 million jobs to the American economy, these are the people listening. And after Clinton labeled Trump supporters ‘a basket of deplorables,’ they embraced the word as a personal cri de coeur.”

You know, this is the Bible reading lot who live in small towns and cities and enjoy doing things like hunting and working with their hands. All they want is the chance to earn an honest living and raise their children in a culture that doesn’t force them to open up girls’ public restrooms to cross dressing men.

These are the folks that columnist Selena Zito wrote about in her post-debate column on Tuesday. Zito reports this man’s reaction was typical, “I’ve been a Democrat all of my life, but when Clinton mentions her husband and the jobs he brought to the country in the ’90s, it’s not a fair assessment. She is no moderate Democrat the way he was, her policies would not bring back jobs.”

And there you have it. When Hillary talks about adding jobs to the economy through federally subsidized industries such as “clean energy” it may serve as a dog whistle to her radical environmentalist supporters (which she has in the tank anyway) but it’s not doing a whole lot for the hordes of regular folks out there who are displaced in the economy.

(Isn’t it funny how “green energy” has turned into “clean energy” in the Democrat vernacular and “global warming” has morphed into “climate change”?)

I believe many of this type of people are not registering in the polls because the pollsters are undervaluing them in terms of turnout. The pollsters think they’ll be scared away from voting by Alicia Machado’s anti-Trump testimonials, but they’re wrong – by a large margin.

There is nothing that motivates people to vote more than their own financial situation, and when Clinton blames the sluggish economy on the Bush administration from eight years ago or Trump’s business enterprises, I just don’t think it’s going to fly on Election Day.

The “discouraged” workers out there are hoping for any alteration in the current situation. All the rest is just Democrat smoke and mirrors.

It’s about time we remembered this the next time some pundit talks about how “damaging” Trump’s statements might be to his chances to win. The “Silent Majority” is real.

World Trade leaders quaking in fear at the prospect of a President Trump

I must admit, of the wide range of news stories covering the fascinating political candidacy that is Donald Trump, the ones that center on his “scaring world leaders” are probably my favorites.

To begin with, the “world” in this context has nothing to do with what the people in any individual country really think (not that that matters either). They’re just swallowing what the media in their country chooses to tell them about current events. The world media, as is true in the United States, is dominated by a leftist point-of-view.

And these “leaders” of the “world” are so married to maintaining the status quo that the thought of switching up the way things are done at the top of the United States is a truly frightening proposition. No wonder they can’t stand the very real possibility of Donald Trump winning next month.

This week’s scare isn’t about NATO or foreign relations, peace treaties or anything else. It’s all about trade.

Megan Cassela of Politico reports, “Faced with the prospect of a U.S. president who pledges to rip up trade agreements, slap tariffs on allies and pull out of the World Trade Organization, top trade officials are in various states of denial and dread.

“Some attending a WTO meeting this week consoled themselves the populist billionaire couldn’t really win the election — ‘though after Brexit, nothing can be ruled out,’ warned Jonathan Peel, a member of the European Economic and Social Committee.”

I can only imagine what they talk about on the “European Economic and Social Committee.” It must be stuffy and hilarious, but not in ways apparent to the committee members themselves.

Let these people deny and dread all they will. The World Trade Organization, like all international bodies such as the United Nations, is not interested in fostering prosperity for the world’s economies as much as it is concerned with preserving its power to tell nations what to do – and preventing the most powerful from exercising their sovereignty.

Trump is all about America first and isn’t interested in reassuring these wimpy establishment cowards that their economic fiefdoms will be preserved. He isn’t anti-trade, either. Trump represents a return to the days when American manufacturing was given its fair due from its leaders. Is that so preposterous?

In offering these “the world is scared to death of Trump” stories, I’m guessing the media hopes to further the “Trump is unstable, Trump is creepy” narrative that seems to be the foundation of Crooked Hillary’s campaign. But I truly wonder whether there are any voters out there who would be inclined to change their votes based on the terror being felt by the foreign trade establishment.

If anything, I would bet many if not most Americans would see these leaders’ skittishness about Trump as another argument in his favor. After all, if your opponent doesn’t fear your negotiation position they’re not likely to give any on theirs.

And you’ll end up with a pretty bad deal.

Mike Pence will help squelch the media frenzy over Trump’s temperament

Finally today, with all the media focus on external issues it may be hard to remember that there’s another debate tomorrow night, this time between vice presidential candidates Mike Pence and Tim Kaine.

Republicans are hopeful the calm and steady Pence will be able to steer the race back towards Hillary’s failures of the past 30 years.

Ben Kamisar of The Hill reports, “Republicans are looking to vice presidential nominee Mike Pence to help the GOP ticket regain momentum with a strong performance at Tuesday’s vice presidential debate…

“Now the campaign turns to Pence, the consummate politician, in the hopes of steadying concerns from Republicans and besting the Democrats on the national stage.”

Pence is the consummate politician? I’m not sure I agree with that label.

At any rate, Kamisar goes on to note the vice presidential debates typically draw significantly fewer viewers than the main events and rarely make any difference in the polls.

I suspect that will be the case this year as well, though Trump supporters are apparently arguing that since both top-of-the-ticket candidates are so unpopular that the vice presidential choice could have a real bearing on whom Americans ultimately select next month.

We’ll see. Living in Virginia and being more familiar with Tim Kaine than most Americans, I’d expect the former governor and current senator to lie about all the prosperity he’s supposedly brought to the state during his time in politics.

And the state certainly has grown along with the rapid expansion of the federal government and the military base down in the Hampton Roads region. This isn’t the Virginia of twenty years ago.

Overall, I would expect both Pence and Kaine to come off fairly well in the debate – at least from the perspective of the average voter. Pence is both smart and principled. Sitting (or are they standing?) next to Kaine, I think he’ll look like the much more attractive candidate for the “next in line”.

And more than likely we’ll be given at least one night off from the fat shaming personal nonsense that is at the heart of Crooked Hillary’s political case against Trump.

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immigration and the economy

Seems to me that Trump and those who are opposed to amnesty and the increase in legal immigration are not doing a very good job of explaining just how the American citizens are being negatively impacted by immigration.
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First, it should be noted that there are those on both sides of the isle who support open borders and the one world government, their main avenue of achieving their goal is through immigration. Mix the population with foreigners teach diversity and non-assimilation and there is nothing holding the country together as a unified nation. Each person keeps their allegiance to their home country.
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They like to claim that the immigrants greatly adds to the American economy and after all the immigrant does work the American citizens won't, not to mention that we supposedly do not have enough educated or highly trained American citizens to fill more skilled jobs, both of these positions are highly inflammatory and ridiculous.
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So let's look at the issue of immigrants who add to the American economy, it seems to me that for every immigrant who is allowed to fill a job there is one American citizen who is not filling that job and it can be assumed that that American citizen is either on unemployment, welfare, forced on early retirement or just stopped looking for work and living off their savings waiting to reach retirement age. The issue here is that for every immigrant working supposedly adding to the American economy there should be one American citizen filling that job who would also have the same impact on and also add to the economy, not to mention reducing the tax burden of the working American tax payer by reducing or eliminating the government benefits for the unemployment and welfare systems when those American citizens are removed from unemployment and the welfare system either in whole or in part.
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Immigration also, negatively impacts the education system, the healthcare system, crime and as we have seen some issues of voter fraud.
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hillary clinton likes to accuse those who oppose immigration as far right white nationalists and there is no strong response to that. Seems like those patriotic American citizens are afraid or just unable to defend their positions.
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Here is the response I would love to see from those patriotic American citizens who want to put America and American citizens first.
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Nationalism knows no color, Nationalism knows no race, Nationalism knows no ethnicity, Nationalism knows no gender, Nationalism only knows a PATRIOTIC AMERICAN CITZEN. The progressive democrats lead by obama and clinton and some republicans only know open borders, and the vision of the one world government they so desire. The one world government knows no nationality and no citizenship, no borders, and everyone is supposedly the same at the mercy of that one world government, are we ready to give up everything we have?
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Make no mistake there is a belief in the one world government that they and their children will be in the elite governing the world.
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It is time to educate the American citizens of this, it is time we ask ourselves are we a sovereign nation with borders or just an employment office for the worlds cheapest labor force.