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Outsiders vs. Insiders: Democrats may bluster but they won't impeach Trump next year

“It was a terrible week for Donald Trump,” – unnamed pundit on unnamed network on an undeterminable day.

Pick a date or an issue or news topic and you’ll likely find someone uttering a version of this line. If you listened to the Washington commenting class long enough you’d automatically surmise President Trump has never had a good hour much less a day or entire week. For the media it rains toxicity all the time in Trump-Trump on news coverageworld. If news makers set the standard Trump would be the worst president of all time – to them he’s corrupt, stupid, hot tempered, a compulsive liar and hopelessly incompetent.

The funny thing is opinion polls (at least some of them) don’t reflect the somber mood of the political experts. How can this be?

W. James Antle III wrote last week at the Washington Examiner, “The news for Republicans this week hasn’t been good. But if the headlines augur a blue wave in November, the polling has been less consistent...

“Generic congressional ballot polling, which tests which party respondents prefer to see in control of Congress, has been inconsistent all year, though Democrats have generally led. Just this week, Rasmussen Reports has shown the two parties tied, Fox News has had Democrats leading by 11, Monmouth has had Democrats up by 5 and Reuters/Ipsos gives Democrats a 4-point lead.

“The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Democrats leading by 6.6 points. FiveThirtyEight’s average gives the opposition party a 7.8-point edge, giving them a better chance of retaking the House, something the forecasting website gives them a 72 percent chance of doing to the Republicans’ 28 percent odds of holding the majority. Different polling firms employ different models, with various assumptions about who is going to turn out, and even polling averages can be skewed by which company’s surveys have come out most recently.”

In his article Antle shares examples from Wisconsin, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas to demonstrate the point. All of these places show surprisingly tight races despite the non-stop dark narrative leaching from the establishment media like vomit from a frat pledge during initiation hazing. It goes without saying the folks at MSNBC, CNN and late night TV were in their glories last week waxing over Paul Manafort’s conviction and Michael Cohen’s guilty pleas.

None of it’s real, though. It’s all part of the media’s grand façade on Trump. The president doesn’t often help himself with his own comments (see those he made about Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Thursday) but as has been repeatedly previously stated, everyone knows by now what Trump is like and his untimely outbursts are expected if not anticipated.

They’re not unlike a speedbump in the road – when you approach one you slow down, pass over it and then jet back to normal speed. The same goes for Trump’s statements; he’s said so many bizarre things that it’s impractical to remember them all. There’s no mystery as to how Trump feels at any given moment – if you’re wondering just check his Twitter feed.

At the same time, you can’t blame pollsters for being confused about where things stand – they’re being pulled in a hundred different directions simultaneously. Not only are the normally ferocious political winds playing tricks on the minds of the public you’ve got the added complexities of a landline-less culture where obtaining a realistic sample of public opinion must be near impossible.

Let me ask you – if you still have a landline phone, do you even bother answering it when it rings? Based on personal experience the only calls worth a darn are to cell phones these days – and if it’s from a number individuals can’t recognize the interruption gets sent to voicemail. It’s pretty useless to call someone if you’re not on their contacts list. It’s a long way from olden times (before answering machines) when everyone was compelled to respond to every ring.

A thought -- maybe these polling firms should try texting instead (who knows, maybe they already have)?

At any rate, if there’s a problem with polling it’s not because pollsters are neglecting to guestimate the makeup of this year’s electorate. No, it’s because they most likely overvalue the importance of certain events within the context of the big public opinion picture.

Ever since Trump assumed his role as the American political circus’s ringmaster the so-called political experts have been mistaken in predicting his doom time after time. We’re now at a point where there are so many Chicken Little “sky is falling” pundits that there’s nowhere left to store them. Today’s establishment news outlets are all constantly regurgitating the same storyline but with different names and faces on the scapegoats.

You know, they’ll say “Trump’s done it now, Trump’s a goner for sure, the Democrats will take the House and probably the Senate, Trump will face impeachment,” etc. As I’ve been saying a lot lately, it’s only late August and people won’t remember any of this stuff two months from now when it counts. The Mueller investigation with its non-Trump-related Manafort conviction and sleazebag Michael Cohen payments aren’t relevant.

If “kitchen table” issues always take precedence, who in their right mind discusses this crapola over dinner? “Say honey, can you pass the potatoes? By the way, did you hear Paul Manafort’s going to prison? How about that porn thing with Michael Cohen?” “Dear, don’t say ‘porn’ in front of the children….”

Sorry, Democrats, normal people don’t talk about this gossipy garbage; they’re much too busy trying to figure out how to pay the $1400 auto repair bill to keep their 2003 Toyota Camry running. If Manafort and Cohen is truly the best Mueller has to offer liberals must be sorely disappointed because it won’t amount to anything.

With the media’s single-minded hate-Trump emphasis one wonders what might change the media’s focus to something productive for conservatives and Republicans. To find the answer look to leaders like Sen. Rand Paul, who proposed to defund abortion giant Planned Parenthood last week. The party establishment wouldn’t support him and the attempt failed.

Paul Bedard wrote at the Washington Examiner, “Sen. Rand Paul’s bid to defund Planned Parenthood failed in the Senate Thursday. By a vote of 45 to 48, his amendment was rejected. It have would barred Planned Parenthood and other abortion outlets from receiving federal funding...

“It did not even win a majority and would have required a filibuster proof 60 votes, though a source said that Paul could have taken a legislative path to just needing 51 votes and didn't.

“Pro-life proponents believe it would have been a good issue to champion in the fall elections, but other reports suggest that it would have added a major controversy to the appropriations bill and jeopardize final passage. Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska -- both Republicans -- voted against it.”

Bedard additionally reported that Paul criticized his fellow party members for choosing out-of-control spending over their promises to protect unborn life. Meanwhile pro-life groups blamed red state Democrats who campaign on issues like ending federal money for abortion factories like Planned Parenthood but always shrink back into their little holes when the time comes to register a vote.

In the end it’s the Republican leadership’s responsibility to push the matter. Since we’re talking about the appropriations process there’s no better opportunity to spotlight an issue than pulling money from it. It’s a positive thing to ex-out taxpayer money for elective abortions performed at a leftist dive like Planned Parenthood. The only reason why the organization continues to receive federal largesse is because GOP leaders wither every time the subject arises.

Yes, it's encouraging Paul’s amendment earned 45 votes but if the proposal were close to passing here’s betting more wishy-washy Republicans would have jumped ship. Abortion might still be a hotbed issue in American society but taking away money from Planned Parenthood isn’t. Survey after survey indicates Americans are against paying for abortions even if a bare majority favors keeping the practice legal (a disputed claim, by the way).

As always it boils down to a question of addition versus subtraction for the feckless Republican leadership. Why must conservatives tolerate leaders who refuse to do what’s right (yanking Planned Parenthood’s funds) because they’re worried about political considerations? Wouldn’t GOP candidates gain more votes by keeping promises as opposed to fighting and losing the same battles every time?

Just like with the Mueller and Cohen controversies, a defund vote for Planned Parenthood would blend in with the rest of this year’s issues by Election Day. Instead, the emerging picture is of a Republican Party that’s afraid to take stands, which isn’t going to help them. And the GOP needs every possible vote to stave off a Democrat party hungry to impeach Trump.

Some think Democrats don’t have the nerve to do it (impeach Trump) either way. Patrick J. Buchanan wrote last week at The American Conservative, “Today, it is Republicans leaders who are under pressure to break with Trump, denounce him, and call for new investigations into alleged collusion with the Russians. But if Democrats capture the House, then they will be the ones under intolerable pressure from their own media auxiliaries to pursue impeachment.

“Taking the House would put newly elected Democrats under fire from the right for forming a lynch mob, and from the mainstream media for not doing their duty and moving immediately to impeach Trump.

“Democrats have been laboring for two years to win back the House. But if they discover that the first duty demanded of them, by their own rabid followers, is to impeach President Trump, they may wonder why they were so eager to win it.”

Buchanan makes an excellent argument. Many conservative commentators are positive the Democrats would be suckers for impeachment if given the opportunity, but I’m not so convinced. While a resolution may pass the House (and if the D majority is narrow, who’s to say?) there’s little to no chance two-thirds of the Senate will agree to oust Trump.

There aren’t enough #NeverTrump senate Republicans to team with Democrats on removing the president. Politicians are dumb but they’re not deaf; anyone can see the public is divided over the impeachment question. Leftists love the idea but nearly all Republicans support Trump and there would be nothing like parading Trump before the inquisitors to get conservatives to rally behind him even further. It could very well turn into pitchfork time if the spectacle gets too out of hand.

Just like Bill Clinton drew strength from being impeached Trump would likely do the same. Unlike Clinton, however, Trump could use the unfair “witch hunt” quality of the proceedings during the height of a presidential campaign to stir up votes. Attitudes in the country would be on fire and here’s predicting Trump would coast to reelection – and the GOP would win back the House with an even bigger majority than they enjoy now if that were the case.

Half the country may still be ambivalent about Trump’s personality but they aren’t uncertain about his policies. Democrats would recognize this and proceed cautiously.

Kyle Smith wrote at National Review on another factor in Trump’s favor, “Spend a few minutes on Twitter playing up the possibility of a Pence administration, as I did this week, and you’ll see what I mean: No way will the Democrats concede that Pence is at least a normal, stable political figure and would be an improvement over Trump.

“Democrats find nothing good in any conservative, ever, until he is safely retired or dead. Every Republican president is the worst president ever, until the next one. Moreover, defeating a (normal) incumbent president in a time of peace and prosperity is almost impossible. If Pence became president and immediately restored a sense of normalcy, he’d be much harder to beat than Trump in 2020.”

Not sure I agree with Smith’s final point, but his other ones are salient. Donald Trump will be a formidable candidate in two years regardless of what Democrats do if/when they take the House majority. They’ll abuse their power and voters will notice.

Democrats hate all Republican presidents, period. Donald Trump just happens to be one with a Democrat-like personal history so they despise him especially. To Democrats, Trump is akin to a traitor; they desperately want to hang him but can’t spare the impeachment noose.

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