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Trump Approval Rating UP Since Fake "Whistleblower" Surfaced

Trump approval polls
The Left-leaning fivethirtyeight.com political and culture commentary website has put up a new analysis of President Donald Trump’s poll numbers. And despite their best efforts to spin the results against Trump it appears that the President’s numbers are UP since the fake “whistleblower” surfaced.

According to an analysis posted by fivethirtyeight’s Nathaniel Rakich, support for impeachment has increased sharply according to fivethirtyeight’s impeachment polling tracker. However, much of the increased support for impeachment so far has come from Democrats, few of whom were probably planning to vote for Trump anyway.

Meaning the effect of the Ukraine scandal appears to be that people who already disliked Trump simply dislike him more.

One other data point to keep an eye on, says Mr. Rakich, is Trump’s approval rating — if the scandal is turning any supporters into opponents (or at least skeptics), it will show up there.

Mr. Rakich claims that we may be starting to see just that noting that as of Sept. 24 — the day House Speaker Nancy Pelosi formally announced an impeachment inquiry — Trump’s approval rating sat at an unusually high 43.1 percent. But the date Rakich’s column posted (October 4) Trump’s approval rating sat at 41.3 percent. That’s a nearly 2-point drop in a little over a week, noted Rakich.

It is also within the margin of error of all the polls, so Trump’s apparent “drop” may have simply been the polls settling within the margin of error.

In fact, says Mr. Rakich, Trump’s 43.1 percent approval rating on Sept. 24 was his highest mark all year, and it’s possible that the uptick that got Trump there was just noise.

In summary, says Mr. Rakich, here in the early days of the Ukraine/impeachment drama, Trump’s popularity has stayed within the narrow range it has inhabited since February (41.0-43.1 percent for his approval rating, 52.3-54.3 percent for his disapproval rating). In other words, the Ukraine scandal still hasn’t eaten into Trump’s true base of support.

If you look only at high-quality polls of Trump’s approval rating before and after news of the Ukraine scandal broke, concluded Mr. Rakich, there’s actually been little change in Trump’s popularity – if anything, it has ticked slightly up.

So why wasn’t the headline on fivethirtyeight.com “Trump’s Popularity Ticks Up After Democrats Launch Fake Impeachment Scandal”?

Part of the answer to that question may be timing – polls that were in the field when the Democrats launched the impeachment “inquiry” may have been discounted or not included in fivethirtyeight’s sample.

And part of it may be an intentional or unintentional bias at fivethirtyeight.

After all, fivethirtyeight projected that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% of beating Donald Trump vs. Trump’s 28.6% likelihood of defeating Mrs. Clinton.

Or it may be that Mr. Rakich’s column posted to fivethirtyeight before another high-quality poll came in that was even more favorable to President Trump.

According to a new Hill-HarrisX survey released on October 2, and reported by The Hill’s Tess Bonn, President Trump’s approval ticked up to 49 percent — its highest mark this year.

The figure marks a 2-point increase from a Sept. 11-12 poll, but a 2-point decrease from its previous peak of 51 percent in August 2018.

Trump's disapproval rating, meanwhile, dropped to 51 percent, which marks his lowest level so far this year.

The nationwide survey was conducted on Sept. 28 and 29, less than a week after House Democrats launched a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump over concerns raised in a whistleblower's complaint about the president's communications with Ukraine. HarrisX researchers surveyed 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

It seems to us the trend in the polls indicates that Americans may agree with President Trump, who tweeted after a recent joint news conference conducted by Democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Democrat House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff:

"The Do Nothing Democrats should be focused on building up our Country, not wasting everyone’s time and energy on BULLSHIT," Trump tweeted following the news conference.

The toll-free Capitol Switchboard is (1-866-220-0044) we urge CHQ readers and friends to call their Representative to tell her or him to oppose the impeachment of President Trump and to support an investigation into the gross corruption of Joe and Hunter Biden.

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