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Could The Confrontation With Iran Go Nuclear?

Fleitz Iran Nuclear Weapon
It appears that while President Trump has left the next post-Soleimani move up to Iran, he is buckling up for Iran to raise the stakes in the confrontation.

White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham put it this way, “If they choose to retaliate, the President has made clear that we will be ready for that. Our military is of course on high alert, and we’ll just see what happens.”

What could Iranian retaliation look like?

Certainly, just seeing “what happens” isn’t really a strategy, but fortunately it looks like there’s more going on behind the scenes.

National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien joined Ms. Grisham for the statement and said, “The Iranian regime has been threatening shipping interests, has been threatening Americans, has been taking hostages, and has been attacking their neighbors. So, this is nothing new, but we are watching it carefully. We sent a very strong message to the Iranian regime that we're not going to tolerate it.”

But then he added this important comment: “I can tell you we have been in touch with our friends and allies in Europe and the region, there is absolutely zero appetite in the international community for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. That won't happen. Our UN resolutions against Iran having a nuclear weapon, the nonproliferation treaty prohibits them from getting a nuclear weapon and we think there is going to be a broad consensus to stop Iran… I think the President made it very clear that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and I think we have got a lot of friends and allies both in the region and in Europe who are committed to that outcome.”

That was probably the most important thing to come out of the post-Soleimani statements from the White House because it was a direct answer to Iran’s most potent post-Soleimani threat; restarting its nuclear weapons program.

Mr. O’Brien’s comments were necessary because after a cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran announced Sunday that it would no longer limit itself to the restrictions contained in the Obamabomb deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. The deal was implemented in 2016, freezing Iran's nuclear program in return for a progressive lifting of international sanctions.

However, no one really believes Iran abandoned its nuclear weapons program, because it put all its most sensitive nuclear sites off-limits to inspectors.

Plus, way back in 2011 Reza Kahlili (a pseudonym for a former CIA operator in Iran) claimed in an article for The Washington Times that Iran already had nuclear weapons, purchased from sources in the former Soviet Union You can read his persuasive article through this link.

According to Mr. Kahlili, “Despite knowing that Iranian leaders were seeking nuclear weapons, Western leaders chose to negotiate and appease with the hope of reaching a solution with Iran. Nearly three years into President Obama’s administration, we must acknowledge that the policies of first a carrot of good will and then a stick of sanctions have neither stopped the Iranians with their nuclear program nor have they deterred their aggressive posture. The Iranian leaders today, despite four sets of United Nations sanctions, continue with their missile and nuclear enrichment program, and they have enough enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs, according to the latest [in 2011] International Atomic Energy Agency report.”

Mr. Kahlili also noted that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, of which Soleimani was a senior leader, had (back in 2011) more than 1,000 ballistic missiles, many pointed at U.S. military bases in the Middle East and Europe. The Guards also have made great strides in their intercontinental missile delivery system under the guise of their space program. If Kahlili is right about Iran’s dealings in the former Soviet Union, then nuclear weapons-capable warheads have already been delivered to the Guards, and Kahlili claims Iran’s supreme leader has ordered the Guards to arm their missiles with nuclear payloads.

When asked what the lesson of the first Gulf War was, General S.F.Rodrigues, formerly Chief of Staff of the Indian Army said, "Don't fight the Americans without nuclear weapons." The George Rasley corollary to that observation is “You don’t seek nuclear weapons unless you plan to fight the United States.”

We have no way of knowing whether the Kahlili report is accurate, but his book makes a credible case that it is, meaning that those “friends and allies” who are committed to preventing Iran from deploying nuclear weapons better buckle-up because the Iranians have been reminded once again how impotent they are without them.

George Rasley is editor of Richard Viguerie's ConservativeHQ.com and is a veteran of over 300 political campaigns. A member of American MENSA, he served on the staff of Vice President Dan Quayle, as Director of Policy and Communication for former Congressman Adam Putnam (FL-12) then Vice Chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee's Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, and as spokesman for Rep. Mac Thornberry former Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.

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