polls

Polling of the Presidential Race Misleads

Conrad Black, The Epoch Times

Part of Democratic strategic dissembling is to claim Biden is riding a bandwagon with a heavy lead toward an almost inevitable victory. This is a reasonable election tactic, but it’s bunk. There is plenty of room to dislike Trump, but not with the frenzied nastiness of the Obamas and Sanders. And nothing less than a campaign of hysterical vilification will distract the country for long from the fact that Biden and Harris are an ambiguous and unconvincing tandem atop a policy engine that is an affront to the intelligence and the interests of most Americans.

Who Is Helmut Norpoth and Why Does He Say Trump Will Win Big?

David Catron, The American Spectator

Norpoth’s “Primary model” has been right 25 of 27 times, and it predicts that President Trump will defeat Joe Biden 362-176 in the Electoral College. If you were masochistic enough to watch last week’s virtual DNC, you don’t need the professor to tell you how this will end. The oldest political party in the world has chosen the oldest presidential candidate in U.S. history to peddle old ideas. In a couple of months, Professor Norpoth will be vindicated yet again, and former Vice President Biden will be released by his captors to enjoy an overdue retirement.

The Tide Turns Toward Trump

Kurt Schlichter, Townhall

Minorities are refusing to simply line up and vote Democrat – many are walking away and moving to Trump despite Biden’s bizarre contentions regarding how black voters must be monolithically Democrat or they apparently stop being black. Trump’s taking the lead again. That’s why you see a doubling down on Democrat attempts to set up the chance to win by fraud and, if they can’t pull that off, declare his reelection victory illegitimate. You can smell their fear. The win is not a done deal. We need to play out the rest of the election like we’re behind, but just know that we aren’t.

Biden losing momentum by playing prevent defense

Michael McKenna, Washington Times

Despite everything that has happened in the last six months, Biden has been unable to put away the president. Team Biden has been playing prevent defense for five months now, hiding the candidate and hoping he can hold off Trump for just another 80 days. The problem with that is by allowing Trump to hang around, Biden has placed himself in a position in which the slightest mistake or hiccup on his part, or the slightest bit of good news for the president — a vaccine? unexpected economic good news? — may touch off a surge, even a modest one, for the president that may be dispositive.

Why the Polls Predict Trump Will Win

David Catron, The American Spectator

Few election polls include, “Who do you think will win the upcoming election?” Pollsters know about the research, they are familiar with the predictive nature of voter expectation surveys, and they know that including such a deadly query will produce accurate results that will enrage their paymasters. They remember what happened to Nate Silver when he suggested Trump had a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016. The pollsters and the pundits who write about their findings don’t want to be canceled for telling the truth, that a number of polls contain citizen forecasts indicating Trump is going to win.

Can Trump Pull a Truman?

Patrick J. Buchanan, CNS News

A medical, economic and a cultural and social crisis, have hit all at once, raising some fundamental questions. Does America retain the unity, strength and sense of purpose to lead the world? What the Trump folks must do now is to zero in on Biden's vulnerabilities, personal and political. First among these is Biden's transparently diminished verbal and mental capacity. Second, the Biden campaign has embraced an agenda that is, in part, Bernie Sanders-AOC-Black Lives Matter. The Trump folks need to force Biden to come out of his basement and either embrace or renounce the radical elements of his agenda.

In 2020, be more skeptical than ever of polls

Editors, Washington Examiner

It’s important to keep in mind a few things. First, polls were extremely ineffective in predicting Trump’s victory in 2016. Second, and most important, there is an unusually wide range of potential outcomes for the fall in terms of the coronavirus and the economy. Finally, Biden cannot stay in his basement for the next five months fielding softball interviews that he still manages to stumble through. Trump could clearly lose. But even in a good year, polls are fallible. During a time when many people don’t know if they’ll be able to watch football or send their kids to school, it’s especially silly to lean on polling.

Has Trump Already Won Reelection?

Robert Stacy McCain, The American Spectator

Looking at the polls in early May Democrats might feel optimistic about their chances of beating Trump. But polls do not tell us everything that can be known about politics. The betting odds, which are determined by people actually wagering their own money on the election, show Trump a solid favorite to win reelection. Maybe those bettors know something the pundits don’t know, but how many people would be willing to bet on Biden’s “electability”? If the Vegas odds are right, and Trump is headed toward a decisive victory in November, we may look back in six months and realize that “Sleepy Joe” never had a chance.

Mayor Pete’s African American Problem

Buttigieg’s African American problem was driven home a couple of days ago by the stark numbers coming out of a Washington Post/Ipsos poll: While 48% of black voters polled backed Joe Biden, only 2% of black Democratic-leaning voters backed the former South Bend Mayor.

Support for Republicans rising in face of Democrats' impeachment mania

Robert Knight, Washington Times

Forced into this charade by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her socialist comrades who have taken over the Democratic Party, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi delayed sending the articles of impeachment over to the Senate. She wants assurance that there will be a “fair” trial. Mrs. Pelosi, who knows that her speakership will probably be over in 2020, cautioned her colleagues before the vote to be “solemn,” and not to cheer or “act happy.” But after three frustrating years of not nailing Mr. Trump, some of them couldn’t contain themselves, laughing and taking selfies. They might as well enjoy it while they can. God willing, the bill for this little party may well be very steep for them next November.

New poll poses serious questions about Democratic impeachment drive

Byron York, Washington Examiner

There is a range of opinions among voters that is more complex than much of the yes-impeach-no-don't-impeach commentary in the media today. The Suffolk numbers suggest many Americans hold complex views of the Trump impeachment. Some are fine with the continued investigation, although large numbers don't believe they have yet seen an impeachable offense. The numbers of people who are ready to impeach Trump now, or who believe the whole thing should be called off, are not big enough to win the day. Democrats now hope televised hearings will convince Americans that the president must be impeached. Democrats should be cautious as they try again.

Anonymous Accusations and Their Dangerous Purveyors

David Catron, The American Spectator

Anonymous accusations have been regarded with suspicion by honorable leaders for at least two millennia. Media hype and third-rate pollsters notwithstanding, the majority of voters know exactly what is going on here. The danger is that they will eventually conclude that any system that employs such people is irredeemably corrupt. Trump’s supporters voted for him because they still believe in the system, that it can be fixed with a new kind of leader who doesn’t worship the state gods to whom the Washington establishment swears obeisance. This may be the last chance to convince the voters that they really matter.

126 Conservative Leaders Denounce Attempts to Impeach President Trump

126 participants in the Conservative Action Project have released a letter to Congress saying it is becoming increasingly clear that this march toward impeachment is nothing more than a partisan coup d’état to overturn the 2016 election and prevent voters from making their own decision as to whether to reelect the president in 2020.

Trump Approval Rating UP Since Fake "Whistleblower" Surfaced

If you look only at high-quality polls of Trump’s approval rating before and after news of the Ukraine scandal broke there’s actually been little change in Trump’s popularity – if anything, it has ticked slightly up with a new Hill-HarrisX survey released on October 2, showing President Trump’s approval ticked up to 49 percent — its highest mark this year.

Impeachment Isn’t Supported by Evidence or the Electorate

David Catron, The American Spectator

The allegations made by the mystery whistleblower appear to have been false, and the phone call between Trump and the Ukrainian president was well within the president’s constitutional powers as they relate to foreign policy. The claim that it is grounds for impeachment is even more absurd than similar claims involving the Mueller report. That the Speaker of the House has finally been forced to endorse what she knows is a politically suicidal impeachment investigation suggests that her caucus is now controlled by the looniest elements of the loony Left. The Democratic Party is obviously in its dotage and can no longer be trusted to handle important issues.

Will Democrat ‘Super Delegates’ Save Gaffe-A-Minute Biden?

A significant group of “super delegates” coming out for Biden would signal donors that the Party elders have confidence in Biden’s ability to take on President Trump. Absent such an effort by the Democrats’ party leaders to tilt the nomination to Biden, it looks like Biden is fading and the race is moving toward an Elizabeth Warren vs. Bernie Sanders marathon.

Economic Reality Matters More Than Spin

Scott Rasmussen, Creators

44% believe that firms in their area are more likely to be hiring than laying people off. Just 20% believe those firms are more likely to be laying people off. What people experience in their daily lives matters far more than media coverage. People who work for companies that are hiring people and growing tend to be more optimistic about the economy. Pessimism is more common among those who see colleagues being laid off. It's obviously true that media coverage can have a short-term impact on economic perceptions. The bigger story is that reality matters more than talking points.

Thom Tillis Nosedives In NC GOP Senate Primary. Garland Tucker on the Rise

In the campaign’s first poll, taken before Thom Tillis flip-flopped on President Trump’s Border Emergency Declaration and when Garland Tucker was unknown, Tillis led then by 56 points. In the July poll Tillis’ world turned upside down. Longtime observers of North Carolina politics say they've never seen an incumbent Senator drop as much, as quickly, as Thom Tillis.

Biden Way Up in CNN Poll, but Will It Last?

Roger L. Simon, PJ Media

With the Kentucky Derby right around the corner, Joe Biden appears to be way up in that other horse race, the Democratic presidential derby. He's a fat 20 points above Bernie, who seems to be slipping. In fact, we might be able to put a fork in the geriatric socialist. It's likely voters, even Democrat voters, are having trouble swallowing his declaration that terrorists should have the right to vote, one of the dumber statements made in the history of presidential politics. (What was or is going on in that man's brain?) But what about the others? They are so far back and there are so many of them that Joe, despite his also geriatric fumbling, may actually waltz into the nomination.

The Democrats’ Mean Girls Problem

Few voters outside college campuses and the liberal Twitterverse are attracted to angry white feminists, sneering liberal arrogance, smug elite condescension, Hillary Clinton-style flip-floppers and scary socialist commissars – which pretty well sums-up the females in the Democratic field.