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Presidential Horse Race 2016: Time to make the final election poll a winner for Donald Trump

I have to admit, I underestimated the forces behind the Republican-led #NeverTrump movement this year. All along I simply refused to accept that they could keep up their baseless “don’t participate!” arguments all the way until Election Day, but they’re doing it.

Instead of reconciling themselves with the fact that either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton is going to be president-elect come Wednesday, they’re still digging at the Republican nominee in a last ditch attempt to Trump votesteer people away from voting for him tomorrow.

For the past eight months (or so) they’ve passionately argued Trump should never have been allowed to become the Republican standard-bearer because he would automatically lose to Crooked Hillary (as if some mystical force could stop him from winning the primaries anyway). Now it seems the #NeverTrumpers are admitting that Trump really can win but it’s still bad because he won’t be “controlled” once in office.

Kimberley Ross wrote at RedState on Friday, “Of course, the chief person tasked with pulling the reins is Trump’s vice presidential pick, Indiana Governor Mike Pence. Somehow, the soft-spoken Midwesterner is to be the voice of reason in a Trump White House? Such a job position is not just difficult for Pence, it would be for anyone. Herculean. Trump has shown himself over and over to be uninterested in constructive dialogue, generally unstable, and easily angered. But Mike Pence is supposed to defuse him?...

“While contradiction between running mates is nothing new, the unstable nature of Donald Trump makes it imperative that he be reigned in should he inhabit the Oval Office. His #2 guy certainly can’t make that happen, so what makes anyone think those lower on the list could?

“Trump is capricious and volatile now. There’s simply no reason to think he wouldn’t be exactly the same in the White House.”

For those who may not be familiar with the term, “capricious” means unpredictable, changeable, variable, impulsive, whimsical, unreliable, fickle, erratic, wayward and flighty. I think we all understand what “volatile” means.

In other words, Ross is advancing the argument that Donald Trump, once he takes his oath, will do something like barricade himself inside the Oval Office with nothing but the nuclear codes to play with and begin pushing buttons. I’m surprised the Clinton people haven’t turned the image of him doing such a thing into a campaign commercial. It’s a little late now.

Once again, for #NeverTrump, it’s all about personality and Trump’s perceived behavior. To insinuate that “Trump can’t be controlled” is a reason to vote for Hillary or Evan McMullin – whom NOBODY knows what his temperament is really like – is basically the same as what Clinton and the Democrats have been saying for months.

Ross might as well be a Democrat. What is she doing writing for a supposedly “conservative” website?

As if Ross’s piece wasn’t bad enough, fellow RedStater Ben Howe put together an almost hour-long video titled “The Sociopath.” Only the “sociopath” referenced in the title is not Crooked Hillary. I’m not kidding.

Joe Cunningham wrote at RedState on Friday, “Ben Howe, RedState Senior Contributing Editor and head of Howe Creative Group, released his highly anticipated and crowd-funded documentary on Donald Trump, ‘The Sociopath’. It’s a look at how we got to Trump, who he really is, and what we can expect of him. It’s brutally honest, deeply compelling, and utterly depressing. But in an irresistibly fascinating way.”

Of course Cunningham’s article contains the video itself. I watched about five minutes of it. Howe and his people obviously spent a great deal of time researching these clips and splicing them together. The narrator sounds dark and ominous. Scary stuff. Talk about people who have too much time on their hands.

Howe’s video also appears to be a non-stop hit-piece on Trump, one that we’d expect from one of George Soros’s organizations or the DNC (same thing, really). It’s really got me wondering -- who is paying for these things…? Are they getting money from Democrat donors to try and depress enthusiasm for Trump?

At this point, one day before the election, I don’t think anything RedState puts out is going to matter a hill of beans come tomorrow. Americans have woken up to the fact that regardless of how much they may dislike one or both of the candidates that there’s more to the election than who is going to be dominating TV screens for the next four or eight years.

This isn’t a personality or popularity contest and it isn’t about being liked by everyone. Policies are policies and Trump clearly represents a departure from the status quo. In a “change” election, Americans can either opt for a new direction or double-down on the current one.

Since winning the nomination, Trump has worked very hard to bring conservatives into the fold and there’s no reason he won’t have a very conservative-oriented administration if he’s elected. As Richard Viguerie has said many times, “personnel is policy”. If you’ve got conservatives in high places the concept of limited government will be advanced and preserved.

If the past few weeks of revelations surrounding Crooked Hillary’s dealings haven’t been enough to convince the #NeverTrumpers that she would be an absolute disaster of epic proportions in office, I’m not sure what else can be done or said to help them understand. Further, Obama’s Justice Department colluded with the Clinton campaign to suppress the FBI investigation. Game, set, match -- Trump.

Hillary can and probably will be indicted if she wins. A constitutional crisis will ensue. The country will be thrown into turmoil that perhaps has not been seen since the 1860’s. No, not the 1960’s -- the 18-60’s. Civil war. Think it can’t happen? There aren’t the same convenient geographical lines dividing the two sides now but the ideological barrier is arguably just as stark.

All this and the best the #NeverTrumpers can do is to produce and promote a video about Trump called “The Sociopath”…?

There will be a reckoning for these people after the election one way or another. It’s going to get ugly, folks.

Will the electorate this year be more like 2012 or 2014?

In a presidential election campaign that has largely lacked a lot of humor, one of the funnier aspects of it has been watching the Democrats panic over the ebb and flow of the polls.

As far as the poll results can be summarized, Crooked Hillary started out with a big lead after both candidates secured their respective party nominations in June. Then Trump surged in July, briefly taking the outright lead during the Republican convention. Then Crooked Hillary retook the top spot in August after her own convention when the whole world feigned shock over Trump’s Khizr Khan snub.

That month Trump replaced his campaign leadership, went to Mexico, gave a winning immigration speech and stayed on message. He crawled within sight of Clinton in the polls going into late September.

After the first Trump-Hillary debate on September 26 the Alicia Machado incident once again widened the gap between the two, giving Hillary what most considered an insurmountable lead which was only widened with the introduction of the Trump/Billy Bush audio tape about a month ago. On October 18, the day before the third and final presidential debate, Clinton enjoyed a 7.1 point margin in the Real Clear Politics average.

Heading into Election Day less than three weeks later, Hillary’s lead has been slashed to next to nothing, all the momentum is on Trump’s side and the Democrats are staring at each other wondering what went wrong. And hoping that maybe the (some of the) polls are just wrong.

Shane Goldmacher of Politico wrote on Friday, “[T]here is the fact that polls — and polling averages — are not infallible. In 2012, Romney led 20 Florida polls in October and November and Obama led in only seven. Obama won the state. And in 2014, in the battle for the Senate majority, pollsters missed the result in race after race far in excess of the margin of error.

“In Virginia, Sen. Mark Warner had led the polling average by nearly 10 percentage points on Election Day. He won by less than 1 point. In Kentucky, Sen. Mitch McConnell won by nearly 15 points, 8 points ahead of the polling average. In Arkansas, Tom Cotton outperformed the polling average by 10 points. In Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts trailed the polling average on Election Day, and he won by more than 10 points.”

In his article Goldmacher was quick to point out the differences between the electorates for midterm and presidential elections but I think the main lesson to be taken from the polls is…they could be wrong and often are.

They were low in projecting Obama’s final numbers in both 2008 and 2012. I’m thinking they’re giving Trump the short end of the stick this year. It’s more than just a hunch or a feeling, too. It’s observing the behavior of the Democrats themselves. They’ve gone into full emergency mode in the past week or so in stepping up their attacks on Trump, virtually ignoring any of the lofty aspirational-type stuff they usually dish out by the shovel full ahead of most elections.

Obama himself has been particularly ridiculous in his campaign appearances. It’s sad.

Trump also deserves some credit for getting his act together for the final phase. Jonathan Swan of The Hill reports, “Trump has surely been helped by the FBI controversy, which has kept the spotlight on Clinton’s biggest vulnerability. But he’s also managed to get out of the way of it, something he often failed to do in the past during moments of controversy…

“On the stump, Trump is talking less about defeat. He’s offering fewer excuses — talking less about ballot fraud — and is more inclined to boast about his rising poll numbers. And after advice from campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, first reported by the New Yorker, voters are unlikely to ever again hear Trump muse about the ‘very, very nice, long vacation’ he’ll take and the ‘very good life’ he’ll return to if he loses on Nov. 8.”

It’s true, Trump is sounding supremely confident these days. Maybe it’s because all of this is almost over. Maybe it’s due to internal polling numbers that show some sort of Brexit-like wave on the horizon. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow night.

If I had to guess I’d say the make-up of the electorate won’t be like Obama’s for his two elections. The difference is Hillary. She’s awful. People won’t turnout for her no matter how much they may dislike Trump.

Ben Carson touts Trump’s education plan for black communities

A couple weeks ago during a speech in North Carolina Donald Trump introduced his “New Deal for Black America,” which offered a complete policy agenda aimed at improving the lives of everyone in the inner cities if he is elected president but particularly African-Americans.

A major part of Trump’s “New Deal” plan concerned education, which surveys indicate is a high priority for the poorest among us. Inner city schools are controlled by corrupt city governments dominated by Democrats. They’re inferior in quality, overseen by leftist teachers unions that horde power and resist change and perhaps worst of all, there’s no choice but to accept them for most black people living in tightly packed urban areas.

Trump supporter Ben Carson wrote in The Root, “Think about this: Rich Democrats are totally obsessed with global warming. We know that. And look what rich Democrats got as a result: an administration that says global warming is the No. 1 priority of the United States and the No. 1 threat to our national security. Our government now spends more than $20 billion a year on global warming programs.

“You might think that the threat of nuclear war or terrorism or even the troubles of black America would be more important national priorities. But that’s not what rich Democrats are interested in. That’s not where the money is.

“So today, rich Democrats get a $7,500 tax break when they buy a Tesla, a $100,000 luxury electric car. But a poor black child can’t get a $7,500 credit to go to a better school.”

Ben Carson should know the importance of a good education, having been raised by a single mother in the ghettos of Detroit. Carson was able to rise above the challenges of his background to become a world renowned neurosurgeon. He’d make a terrific Secretary of Health and Human services should Trump win. But he also knows what it would take to improve education for those who are growing up in similar circumstances to his own.

It only makes sense that to improve inner city education parents need to be given a choice on where their kids go to school, including the possibility of sending them to more discipline and academically-demanding religious schools. Or home schooling. Technological advancements make excellent curriculums available wherever people are connected.

And today, that’s everywhere.

But just like with every other area of life, Democrats want to keep African-Americans – and everyone else -- subjugated to the whims of the elites. Like some bureaucrat in Washington knows more about where their kids should go to school than the parents themselves.

Ben Carson has been a valuable asset to Trump throughout the campaign. I wish he had been a more prominent surrogate on the stump. I can’t help but believe Carson’s common sense message will hit home with a lot of black people. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

Experts admit Trump has a path to victory, but are they just covering for themselves?

Finally today, it won’t matter a darn on Election Day but more and more “experts” are starting to acknowledge that Donald Trump actually has a path to victory tomorrow.

Jonathan Swan of The Hill reports, “Influential election forecaster Charlie Cook is backing off his call that the presidential race is ‘over.’

“Cook, the publisher of the Cook Political Report, made headlines last month when he tweeted: ‘Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER.’

“Now, with polls tightening both nationally and in several key states, Cook says he still thinks Donald Trump will lose but no longer considers it implausible that the GOP nominee takes the presidency on Tuesday.”

Cook added that Trump’s chances are “fairly small” but admitted they exist nonetheless.

Whether the pollsters themselves actually believe what they’re saying is another matter. There’s no way of knowing how big Trump’s electorate will be. Early voting offers signs but they’re not definitive.

I think these “experts” are opening the door to a possible Trump victory because they don’t want to look stupid if it turns out they’ve been wrong all along in forecasting a resounding Clinton win.

Most of the news reports over the weekend seemed slanted in Clinton’s favor. We heard the FBI wouldn’t be recommending prosecution – again. We heard about bigger than expected Hispanic early voter turnout in Florida and Nevada. And Trump’s decision to do a campaign event in Minnesota on Sunday was seen as an act of desperation because it potentially hinted he was conceding all of the other battlegrounds in a vain attempt to try and snag a state that never goes Republican.

In other words, it’s not clear whether Trump is trying to expand the map or merely grasping at straws hoping to find the right one.

The fact remains that tomorrow’s election will turn on the motivation of Trump’s voters to get to the polls and register their dissatisfaction with Obama and Hillary’s America.

Here’s thinking they won’t have needed an additional knock at the door or another campaign commercial to remind them of what’s at stake. Two worldviews are on the ballot tomorrow. One way or another, a lot of people (like Cook) will have been right or wrong. What comes after is anyone’s guess.

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