President-elect Trump intends to end the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. He has named Lieutenant General (retired) Keith Kellogg as special envoy to begin negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. I know General Kellogg as a personal acquaintance and through our work together at the America First Policy Institute.
I support President Trump in his initiative to appoint General Kellogg and in his desire to stop Vladimir Putin’s murderous war against the Ukraine nation. As a former ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), I understand Ukraine’s right to be a free and sovereign nation.
Putin has stated he will continue his aggression until he achieves his military and political goals. He intends to reduce Ukraine to a vassal state and achieve his first conquest in his long-term plan to reestablish the Russian/Soviet empire. General Kellogg will challenge that objective by insisting on negotiations.
If Putin refuses negotiations, President Trump has said he will support Ukraine. Putin will make demands on Trump and Europe that will mean a long-term threat to the independence not just of Ukraine but of Europe itself. If those negotiations stall or don’t even start, I have a suggestion for General Kellogg’s consideration.
First, Russia needs to withdraw its military from Ukraine entirely, and Ukraine would withdraw from its occupation of Russian territory. Russia’s withdrawal would restore its pledge made under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 wherein Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A fundamental principle of the OSCE, as set down in the Helsinki Accords of 1975 and signed by Russia, prohibits one country’s invasion and conquest of another sovereign country. Full Russian withdrawal would restore its adherence to the principles of the OSCE.
If Putin is successful in conquering Ukrainian territory, “all bets are off” in international relations in the 21st century. China would certainly see Russian success as an invitation to launch its often-threatened attack on Taiwan. Sooner or later America would wake up and understand that they cannot live in such a world. A new world war would then ensue.
Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine may seem fanciful in the face of Putin’s fascist aggression, but maybe it could happen. All reports suggest that Russia cannot continue its war forever. Sanctions are finally damaging the Russian economy and more sanctions can be imposed. The value of the ruble is collapsing. North Korean soldiers have been brought into the war because Putin doesn't want to conscript more Russians. Putin has failed to conquer Ukraine, and losses on the battlefield exceed 700,000 killed and wounded, and more every day. Putin can’t sustain his war much longer.
Second, a security zone should be established on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border. The Ukrainian side would be occupied by peacekeepers from allied countries, including the United Kingdom, France, and others. Several of those countries have already expressed their intention to enter the conflict if there is no settlement. On the Russian side of the border, Russian police and civil authorities would patrol the security zone.
The allied peacekeepers patrolling the Ukrainian side of the border in this settlement need not be under NATO auspices. Those allied peacekeepers could be provided under bilateral agreements between the providing countries and Ukraine. Participating allied countries should agree in advance they would reinforce their units if Russia again threatened aggression. After all, Russia has already violated all agreements with Ukraine and cannot be trusted not to start the war again after a period of calm and refitting.
Third, to support a Putin claim that he has achieved Russian security, Ukraine should agree to postpone its application for NATO membership for ten years. Under OSCE principles, any country can join any alliance it chooses, but a postponement would not reject those OSCE principles.
Putin tells the Russian people they are under threat from Ukraine. That story is ridiculous, but Putin controls the information the Russian people hear. Putin’s real goal is conquest, not Russian security, but if Putin can claim he has won security for Russia, he may have a face-saving way out of the war he started and is losing.
Should any of these negotiations fail, an alternative strategy would be to force Russia back into a war of attrition, which Putin would not want. Through the use of modern weaponry, maximum losses can be inflicted on Russian soldiers, while implementing a defensive strategy by Ukraine to preserve Ukrainian soldiers. This strategy works all the time. It worked against the U.S. in Vietnam. It worked against the U.S. and also Russia in Afghanistan.
President Trump and General Kellogg should be supported in this initiative to stop this war in the heart of Europe. President Biden has been intimidated by Putin in a way Trump is not. One thing is clear, a Putin conquest in whole or part compromises all of Europe, threatens the safety of the United States itself, and ushers in a third world war, All of us should support Trump and Kellogg in this historic mission for peace and security.
James S. Gilmore III was President Trump’s ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) from 2019-2021. He was the 68th Governor of Virginia.
2024 Election
Donald Trump
General Keith Kellogg
Russia Ukraine War
Vladimir Putin
Soviet Empire
Negotiations
Independent Ukraine
Russia Withdrawal
Ukraine sovereignty
Sanction on Russia
Russian losses
Security zone
Allied peacekeepers
Organization for Security and Cooperation
OSCE principles
Comments