Internal Battleground State data released October 13th to CHQ and other select media by the Trump campaign has revealed a significant disparity in the polled favorability of Vice President Kamala Harris from prior to her recent media blitz and a flurry of ad spending by
Democrat SuperPACs and the current state of her campaign.
According to the release, during the month of July Harris’ favorability spiked by a 15 point margin and in heads up balloting against President Donald Trump she closed the gap from seven points behind to just one.
The internal data from Trump’s team showed that after this initial bump, the Haris campaign made few meaningful gains in the categories of favorability or ballot standing.
The campaign stressed that Harris “largely treaded water” throughout the month of August up until Labor Day.
Curiously, though the ballot position of Harris against Trump closed to a deadlock, her favorability only saw an increase of two points. But as the campaign noted, a presidential race is frequently viewed as not beginning in earnest until after Labor Day, and the changes reflect it.
The campaign provided a “State of the Race” analysis from September 3rd ,and October 11th giving a comparison between the two moments in time.
State of the Race – September 3, 2024:
* “The RCP national polling average was Harris +1.8 – on the same Day in 2020, Biden was +7.2 – Trump running 5.4 points better than 2020.
* Also, according to the RCP Battleground State polling averages, Harris was leading with 270 electoral votes to Trump's 262, with 6 EVs tied (No Lean or Toss-up States). Since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent $241,407,417 on trackable media spend compared to only $104,774,939 paid by the Trump campaign – nearly a 2.5 to 1 spending advantage.“
State of the Race – October 11, 2024:
* “The RCP national polling average is still Harris +1.8 – on the same Day in 2020, Biden was +10.3 – Trump now running 8.5 points better than 2020.
* Also, according to the RCP Battleground State polling averages, in a dramatic turn, Trump is now leading in 296 electoral votes to Harris's 242 EVs (with no Lean or Toss Up states included).”
The disparity between the Harris’ campaign’s ad spending more than doubling the Trump campaign’s and the seemingly frozen nature of her overall polling numbers since September after a precipitous decline suggest that the national opinion is already locked in to Harris’ disadvantage and the outcome may now be unavoidable.
The Trump campaign noted the stunning result in the release saying, “Given the vast amount of money her campaign has spent and the willingness of the MSM to give her a pass at every turn, how is it possible that she's gone backward in our internal and public polling?”
In a more drilled-down series of policy questions the differences become even more apparent with Trump making marginal gains or holding while Harris takes marginal losses or remains locked.
In estimation of whether Trump or Harris would do a better job as President, from Sep. 5th to Oct. 9th Trump gained a single point polling at 49%, while Harris remained in place at 45%.
A similar result played out in whether each candidate would “Deliver change America Needs,” with Trump gaining a point to reach 47% with Harris locked in at 43%.
On fighting inflation and rising costs, an issue Harris has attempted to pin on companies engaged in “Price gouging,” to little avail, Trump gained a single point bringing him to 50% while Harris backslid to 40%.
Both candidates ability to “Improve the Economy” remained immovable over the last month with Trump remaining at 50% while Harris trailed by 9 points.
On the issue of job creation Trump’s six point lead eroded to five points at 47%, but Harris didn’t enjoy a gain from it.
Under the vital issue of improving voters’ personal financial situations the results were unchanged with Trump enjoying a stark 12 point advantage at 48% to Harris’ 36%.
Border Security, another key issue, proved a steady gauge for Trump at 55% both months while Harris took a one point hit bringing her down to 28%.
However, the single greatest lost for Harris over the month of September came from whether she would “Fight Crime and Make Neighborhoods Safer.”
As violent illegal immigrant gangs ravage Colorado and New York, the American voter has been watching. On this issue, Trump enjoyed a two-point gain while Harris lost bringing the result to 49% to 38%, an 11 point gap.
The Battleground state results speak for themselves, showing that the glacially locked figures, when they do drift by one or two points, are moving in Trump’s favor.
Hearkening back to Exit Poll figures from 2020, the Trump campaign pointed to four key results that demonstrate Harris’ inability to appreciably change the election outcome at this point.
* Trump is presently enjoying a 13 point edge over where his campaign polled in 2020 among independent voters. In 2020, he lost this cohort of voters by 8 points, today he leads by 5.
* Among Black voters Trump is now 20 points ahead of his 2020 result. Comparing the two he lost Black voters in swing states by 81 points, today he’s eroded Harris’ lead to 61.
* With Hispanic voters Trump’s 2024 gains are even more pronounced with him polling 32 points above his finishing mark in 2020 when he lost by 25 points. Astonishingly today he leads by 7 points.
* Finally, among younger voters aged 18-44, Trump has gained 11 points over his 2020 result, closing the gap from 15 points to 4.
Simply put, in the battleground states, the 2024 election is not shaping up to be a repeat of 2020, and month over month polling indicates that significant movement for either candidate is unlikely beyond a 1-2 point change notwithstanding the blistering endgame spending the Harris campaign applies.
Matthew Holloway is a contributor for Conservative HQ. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@theconservativefreelancer.com.
2024 Election
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