On the day we’ve all been waiting/working for, here’s the way I see it:
“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Or, more aptly in contemporary parlance, someone could ask Kamala Harris how she lost the 2024 presidential race. “Slowly… then all at once.”
Of course, today being Election Day, Harris hasn’t lost the race. Yet. But the signs of failure are everywhere, be it in Kamala’s sinking stature in opinion polls, the erratic and desperate behavior of the candidate herself and the Democrat partisans around her, or in the perceptible sense of optimism exhibited by Donald J. Trump and Republicans as they’re asked to comment on their thoughts going into today.
As the race nears its finish line, the Harris effort appears to be unravelling, the finger-pointing and blame game having already begun, the undoing having accelerated recently, propelled and fueled by president senile Joe Biden’s unprompted remark last week calling Trump supporters “garbage” simply because they back a man in the presidential race who’d won one national election and was beaten – maybe – in another one under mysterious circumstances.
The New York Yankees were caught shaking their heads after they blew a five-run lead to winner the LA Dodgers to close out this year’s World Series, none of them quite able to articulate the factor or factors that contributed to their crushing collapse. Such will likely be the case in the coming days at campaign headquarters in Democrat-land. For now, the finger-pointing and ugly invective has already begun.
In an article titled “Democrats start to point fingers even as they hope for Harris win”, Amie Parnes reported at The Hill last week:
“Vice President Harris could win the presidential election next week. But fingers in Democratic circles are already being pointed behind the scenes, in the event that she falls to former President Trump. While some Democrats say they are increasingly hopeful that Harris will win, others have expressed mounting frustration about a string of factors that have plagued the campaign from the outset.
“Fingers are being pointed at Harris and her campaign when it comes to disappointment over her messaging, particularly on the economy. But some Democrats have already looked to pin the blame on President Biden, who some think took too long to step aside.
“’People are nervous and they’re trying to cover their ass and get a little ahead of Election Day,’ one Democratic strategist said of the sniping. ‘It’s based on anxiety, stakes and the unique nature of this cycle. We didn’t have a traditional process for this election. We didn’t have a primary. People just had to fall in line,’ the strategist added, saying ‘it’s not surprising to me’ that some of the blame game is happening even before Election Day.”
Let it burn. That’s another common refrain when something that once looked promising comes apart like a space vehicle returning without a heat shield to protect it from the super-heated gases that would doom it. (Note: This is not an allusion to the tragic accident that ended the Space Shuttle Columbia, more like a reference to Skylab, which was scheduled to come apart upon reentry.)
Many of the things the “experts” are now citing as failures of the Kamala Harris campaign were eminently foreseeable and were basically inevitable from the beginning. Starting with the candidate herself, the Democrat presidential operation of 2024 will be remembered as the campaign that couldn’t beat the imminently (to them, at least) beatable Donald Trump. Trump, as everyone recalls, left office a couple weeks after the sad riot of January 6th, 2021, under a cloud of disgrace probably only exceeded by the circumstances that forced Richard Nixon from office.
Fair or not, the world was awfully angry at Trump in those days. Not only had he behaved badly after the election, all of the angst millions of conservatives were feeling were concentrated in his person. Republicans needed someone to focus their anger on. Trump provided a convenient means to express it. Who will forget how Trump didn’t attend senile Joe Biden’s inauguration and was basically long gone before the transfer of power even took place?
So bad was the mood of Republicans after Biden took over that Trump essentially disappeared for a couple months to offer conservatives a “cooling off” period to heal – and mourn. All the good work Trump had done during his administration seemingly disappeared within a matter of hours. Commentators were jumping ship faster than lifeboat-less passengers off the deck of the Titanic.
That seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Trump did indeed stay out of view for a good long while, not answering in the affirmative or negative whether he was considering a comeback. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ January 6 Commission was doing its dirty work. Biden, Kamala and the Democrat-controlled Congress was running roughshod over the Constitution, basically dictating changes (COVID and otherwise) while stifling contrary voices.
The conditions for a dramatic reemergence for Trump were already being cultivated.
Trump did make his reappearance. Kind of like Douglas MacArthur making good on his vow to return in World War II, the 45th president ascertained that the Democrats’ overreach and horrific economic decisions built a foundation for Trump’s second act. Biden’s popularity was already beginning to wane within the first year of his presidency (Afghanistan and Lets go Brandon!). The old goat was out-of-touch. The truth started coming out about what really happened on January 6th. The second Trump impeachment fell flat. It was so blatant that Chief Justice Roberts didn’t even preside over it.
It all led to today. Time for a prediction? Donald Trump will win and it won’t be as close as many of the polling pros and pundits have said it would be. This is going out on a limb, of course, and I expect/invite a rebuke if I’m wrong. But Trump’s victory will be complete – with more than 300 Electoral Votes, just like in 2016 – and cackling Kamala will be sent packing back to California. Or wherever political jurisdiction will offer her sanctuary.
The popular vote will be close. Trump may even lose there. There are a lot of angry liberals out there.
Further, there will be at least one “surprise” Trump state win, such as in New Mexico or Virginia, both having large numbers of Hispanics who were turned off by Kamala Harris and her condescending final pitch to minority groups who usually back Democrats.
A deposed dictator often has to find a country that will take him or her. That’s Kamala Harris now. A woman without a job. Or a country.
My arguments in favor of forecasting a big Trump win:
One, the 2024 election is the difference between voting for a candidate versus voting against one. Simply stated, Trump supporters actually like their candidate and his combativeness. Sure, there will be millions of marginal Republicans, independents and disaffected former Democrats (black men, Hispanics, union members, etc.) who choose Trump because of his issue platform, but a vote is a vote and these groups favor Trump for positive reasons.
Most of cackling Kamala’s support, on the other hand, stems from the “hold your nose” syndrome where they’re settling for Harris because she’s not Trump. The sizes of the two clusters are very close, but a preponderance of voters in the key states is coming out to vote because they want competent government. Radical feminists, abortion lovers, the young and ignorant and uninformed think Kamala is “cool” and they like her “joy” and “vibe”. But they’re a minority of Harris voters.
Two, Trump was weighed down in 2020 by the COVID pandemic, which was a lose-lose situation no matter how you looked at it. I had acquaintances tell me four years ago they voted for Biden because the pandemic was “Trump’s fault” and he was solely responsible for all of the American deaths. Was that fair?
In 2024, Kamala must own the Biden/Harris record, whether she wants to or not. No matter how many times Harris claimed she represents a “New way forward” or a “new generation of leaders”, voters looked at her and still saw Joe Biden. The senile president uttered the “garbage” remark last week, but it might as well have come from Kamala herself.
Harris couldn’t shake senile Joe Biden’s shadow. She couldn’t have it both ways – take the nomination from him and also spontaneously inherit the entirety of the Democrat coalition.
Three, Trump is expanding the “map” and Harris, in the final days, battled to hold on in the swing states only. It’s a traditional sign that Trump is confident; Harris just hopes to squeak by in the Electoral College.
Last week, Trump traveled to New Mexico and Virginia to hold rallies. He also spoke at New York City’s Madison Square Garden and other states with heavy blue populations.
Four, Kamala Harris will be weighed down by the war in Israel. The Democrat tried to play both sides, but in the process, turned off thousands of Jewish voters and upper Midwest Muslims who expected greater enthusiasm in representing their side. It’s a problem of Democrat making. Trying to please everyone in politics pleases no one.
Trump shaped his message to appeal to every American, not just one group or constituency. America First foreign policy is liberating – it allows Trump to only serve one master, the American people. No wonder his platform overcame some of his personality limitations.
Lastly, when the epilogue is eventually written for the 2024 campaign, senile Joe Biden will be deemed the determining factor. Democrats thought they had eliminated Biden from the campaign by taking away his fairly won primary nomination, but they were wrong. They couldn’t “bench” the president without angering him, yet permitting the aged fool to continue invited gaffes and “garbage” that they could not have foreseen.
What comes around, goes around.
It could be said Donald Trump won the 2024 election through pure grit and determination. It hasn’t been easy; he almost lost his life in the process. Trump is the poster boy for perseverance and overcoming obstacles. And if he does win today as I predict, he’ll have four more years to make America Great Again. Brace yourself for a bumpy ride.
And if I’m wrong, we’ve got bigger problems than heaping scorn on the overly optimistic for it.
Joe Biden economy
inflation
Biden cognitive decline
gas prices,
Nancy Pelosi
Biden senile
Kamala Harris candidacy
Donald Trump campaign
Harris Trump debates
J.D. Vance
Kamala vice president
Speaker Mike Johnson
Donald Trump assassination
Donald Trump
2024 presidential election
Tim Walz
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