On the last day of September in the fascinating and unprecedented year 2024, a brief look back to the consequential events of this month is in order.
At the start of September, Democrats had just concluded their quadrennial national convention riding on a wave they hoped would carry them through to victory this year, behaving as though American voters were emotional basket cases who couldn’t remember all that had gone before this summer – and would ignore the fact Democrat nominee cackling Kamala Harris had just completed her first sit-down interview with a media member, CNN’s Dana Bash, taking along running mate “Tampon Tim” Walz as a comfort pet for good measure. This was the backdrop of Labor Day weekend, which Americans supposedly took to decompress and once again focus on the many political tasks ahead.
The lead-up to the September 10 presidential debate showed both candidates hoping to establish or shore up their respective positions in the overall race, with Donald Trump figuring his vast experience in a debate format could overcome anything Kamala Harris would practice for, memorize or ad lib during the 90-minute period. What Trump didn’t account for was the willing cooperation of the ABC debate moderators fact-checking much of what he’d said during the program, and, let’s face it, his getting badly sidetracked and flustered to the point where practically everyone thought Harris won the debate on style points when it was over.
The easily distracted journo class couldn’t stop talking about the plight of Haitian illegal aliens and their dietary preferences. J.D. Vance made a strong showing on CNN, asking Dana Bash if she would rather him answer her questions or if she’d simply prefer interrupting him and writing her own narrative.
Content of the debate was a different matter. Americans aren’t dumb; they noticed Harris wasn’t much improved from an empty pantsuit and her “A New Way Forward” campaign slogan made no sense, since the “current” way was, at least in part, determined by her role in hers and Biden’s own administration. Plus, Trump’s closing argument in the program was very effective. Paraphrasing, Trump wondered, “If you’ve had power all this time, why haven’t you done any of these things? Can’t you wake up Joe Biden tonight and get busy on implementing your policy agenda? Why wait???”
Murmurs over debate performances were sidetracked by the second astonishing – but not surprising – assassination attempt on Trump’s life, a happenstance that seemed even quirkier and more unexplained than the first nearly successful attempt in Pennsylvania two months earlier.
Meanwhile, polls haven’t moved a whole lot, with Harris still maintaining a slight lead in the Real Clear Politics popular vote average and Trump slowly gaining ground in most swing states. October beckons and promises to be yet another highly consequential month, beginning with tomorrow night’s vice president’s debate pitting Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat “Tampon Tim” Walz representing the Democrat ticket.
Evidence shows practically imperceptible shifts in public opinion – in Trump’s favor – are taking place. Yet still there are those in the establishment media who claim Trump himself remains his own worst enemy and the signs are ominous for the former president. In an article titled “Trump’s biggest problem remains Trump”, liberal pundit Stuart Rothenberg wrote at Roll Call last week:
“A noteworthy 47 percent of those who responded [to a recent NBC News survey] selected Vice President Harris, while only 38 percent identified former President Trump. Those numbers caused some head-scratching by observers who thought Trump’s nontraditional approach to campaigning and governing, as well as his rhetoric and Harris’ incumbency, would give the former president a strong advantage on the attribute of change…
“It’s notable that no single issue is seen as most important by more than 28 percent of respondents. In times of inflation or recession, well over half of those polled select one of those answers. So, while it is noteworthy that ‘inflation and the cost of living’ was identified as the most important issue facing the country, it is not likely to define the presidential year…
“A few months ago, the burden was on Democrats to explain why Biden deserved another term. Now, the burden is on Trump to depress Democratic turnout and successfully woo swing voters and suburbanites. That is much more difficult to do now that Harris is seen as the greater agent of change and the more competent candidate.”
Granted, I haven’t seen the same data points that Rothenberg cites in his treatment, but this survey showing Kamala Harris as the change agent runs counter to pretty much everything I’ve encountered in recent times. Sure, as Stuart emphasizes, cackling Kamala is indeed a woman of color (born to a mother from India and a father from Jamaica), represents a new face in this two-year-long presidential race and appeals to the “feel good” slice of Americans who vote according to demographic and surface characteristics, but there’s just no way a plurality of citizens recognize Harris as a “change” agent in an inflation-plagued America in 2024.
There just ain’t enough “change” in her party or beliefs to sneak that one past anyone who actually possesses a brain and uses it.
With a premise so outlandish, it throws the rest of Rothenberg’s analysis into question, doesn’t it?
As if you couldn’t garner it from the text of the article, Rothenberg’s subheading was, “The trajectory of the presidential race is trending to Harris”. Like the ABC moderators last month, Democrat pundits, when it comes to commenting on their own candidates, tend to gaze through rose colored glasses and read “trends” in polling numbers the way they want to see them. In contrast, some Democrats notice massive warning signs for their side – like Gallup’s survey from last week – and prefer taking a realistic assessment rather than viewing their electronic soapbox as another opportunity to drone on about how awful Trump is.
And that Trump is his own biggest problem. We’ve heard it all before, haven’t we?
While it’s true Trump should be doing better than his overall poll numbers show, the same qualities that Rothenberg suggests are “problems” for the candidate are also things that draw people to him. The “experts” long ago quit trying to squeeze Trump into a tight little easily explainable box.
Put it this way, what if Trump were suddenly able to flip a switch and instantly morph into someone who the pundits relate to – like Mitt Romney? – his unpredictable nature would vanish. Some folks would like it and welcome it. I know a good many conservatives who’ve tired of Trump’s “act” and are waiting for the election to be over so the man can get back to doing what he does best – governing the country – and cease with his constant defensiveness, thin skin and penchant for punching back in every direction whenever he feels threatened.
These folks see Trump as playing a grand version of “Pin the tail on the donkey” using his words and social media posts as his game’s playing implements.
I personally would prefer Trump learn from his past mistakes and make himself into an unbeatable (because of his issues) force who would win this year’s election by a Reagan-like 1984 landslide, but I don’t know if it’s even possible. For everything Trump might try to “improve” would – or could – turn someone off. Rothenberg was correct about one thing – people know Trump, both good and bad.
But they don’t know Kamala Harris. At all. And for those like Rothenberg who speculate voters will base their choice for president on an unknown quantity like Kamala just because she’s “diverse” and has parents who spoke with unique ethnic accents, I think he’s way off base.
(Note: Harris’s father, Donald J. Harris (this isn’t a joke, by the way) is alive and lives in Washington, D.C. She describes their relationship as “cordial but distant”.)
It looks to this observer as though Harris has run out of new things to do and say. Her bright re-introduction to the national political scene has already faded, and every time her boss makes an appearance (such as his final address to the United Nations last week where he repeated his “I still love my job but it’s time for a new generation of leaders” bull-crap excuse for pulling out of the race), he makes a donkey of himself.
It's almost as though people are watching for Biden’s latest emergence from the White House to see if there’s a noticeable deterioration in his faculties. It’s kind of morbid.
Further, Trump continues to do interviews, hold rallies and conduct himself as a man who actually wants to be president. He may be his own biggest problem – according to Stuart Rothenberg – but he’s also got his boundless energy and willingness to engage and answer questions going for him.
Perhaps Harris is relying too much on her “candidate of change” mantra and realizes she’s the one who’s tied to the policies of the present. Yes, gas prices and interest rates have come down, a bit, but there’s no way the damage since senile Joe Biden and cackling Kamala will be undone in time to save her. Besides, most people admit they were better off under Trump’s policies, a question she herself refuses to answer whenever she’s asked about hers and her boss’s time in office.
Kamala’s stock responses to the most frequently asked questions – about the economy and immigration – are starting to sound stale and rehearsed. It’s almost as though the Democrat powers-that-be better begin putting together new retorts, or some clever conservative in the media will catch her repeating the same stuff for different cameras.
There aren’t enough Oprah Winfreys out there to feed her softball questions. What can poor Kamala do?
Each succeeding month in the 2024 campaign seems to outdo the previous one, and it’s a sure bet that October will be just as wild for the American people. With early voting having started in most states, the people who’ve already made up their minds to favor the true “change” candidate – Donald J. Trump – shouldn’t hesitate to go cast a ballot. I did so a few days ago in Virginia, where Trump is supposedly competitive. Then let the “trends” fall where they may.
Joe Biden economy
inflation
Biden cognitive decline
gas prices,
Nancy Pelosi
Biden senile
Kamala Harris candidacy
Donald Trump campaign
Harris Trump debates
J.D. Vance
Kamala vice president
Speaker Mike Johnson
Donald Trump assassination
2022 elections
Donald Trump
2024 presidential election
Tim Walz
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