How valuable are presidential debates?
It depends on who you ask. Candidates who are behind in their races see debates as a vital
potential tool to make up ground vis-à-vis their opponents. It’s one of the reasons why practically all of the not-Trump Republican presidential candidates desperately attempted to goad frontrunner Donald J. Trump into reversing his stated position on participating in them earlier this year.
Trump let it be known he had no intention to join his adversaries in a made-for-TV soundbite fest, and nothing Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and the other candidates did convinced the two-time Republican nominee to alter his thinking. Sure enough, Trump didn’t chance elevating the stature of the others – and ended up winning the primary race handily.
Similarly, Democrat candidate cackling Kamala Harris, fresh off her apparent “victory” in the September 10 forum, dares Trump to debate her again. But Trump isn’t going for this one, either, and shows no sign of reversing course. Is this wise?
In an article titled, “Trump Rejects Calls for Another Debate as 880,000 Early Votes Already Cast”, Jack Phillips reported last week at The Epoch Times:
“’I’m not looking to do it again, too far down the line. Votes are already cast,’ Trump wrote. The former president’s remarks came after his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), and Harris’s, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, held their first and only vice presidential debate on the evening of Oct. 1.
“It’s just five weeks before Election Day, and millions of voters can now cast early ballots.
“This week, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement that ‘Vice President Harris believes that the American people deserve to see her and Trump on the debate stage one more time… ‘She will be in Atlanta on October 23—Donald Trump should step up and face the voters,’ she said.”
Yup. Where it was simple speculation before, now there can be no doubt cackling Kamala has caught the debate bug. Like a child at an amusement park who initially refused to ride the roller coaster, once she decided to give it a try and discovered how fun it was, she didn’t want to stop. Sure enough, Kamala is that little girl!
Only this time another “ride” depends on the willing participation of Donald Trump. Good luck convincing the 3-time Republican nominee to do something he doesn’t wish to do.
And Trump’s got a number of solid reasons for desiring not to give her the honor of his presence without major concessions. My immediate reaction upon the conclusion of last week’s J.D. Vance vs. “Tampon Tim” Walz program was there was no way Donald Trump should debate cackling Kamala Harris again. While it’s true there could potentially be much to gain from agreeing to another encounter with the senile Joe Biden protégé, the gamble would outweigh the possible benefit. But there would be pros and cons in any case.
What are the potential advantages to another debate?
One, based on past experience as a guide, Trump almost always takes what he’s learned from a questionable (because of his demeanor, not content) debate performance and learns from it, presenting himself as “new and improved” to the national audience that had witnessed his first less-than-stellar showing, enabling viewers to see the much better version of the former president before they actually head to the polls.
There’s only one problem with this analysis: millions of citizens have already cast their ballots and can’t suck their vote back out of the mailbox or voting machine upon changing their minds. Just like the old Election Day, once you’ve turned in your ballot, you can’t get it back. There’s finality to it all, which invariably results in a sinking feeling for those wishy-washy people who perpetually worry, what if I change my mind?
As a side note, when I voted early a week and a half ago, I felt confident I would never change my mind on this year’s candidate choice, but still the apprehension regarding a distrust of the voting system lingered. How could I guarantee my vote didn’t get swallowed up by the voting machine itself? Was there a way to verify? Could I rely on something other than blind trust to ensure my ballot didn’t just disappear – or worse, be diverted over to the other side?
Back to Trump. Try and recall how Trump’s first go-round vs Crooked Hillary Clinton in 2016 went okay – not perfect, but good enough. Yet still most objective observers, if there were any even back then, thought Hillary’s “Alicia Machado” surprise was the most newsworthy moment from the evening. Don’t forget how afterwards, shallow people were talking about Machado and not about Clinton’s corruption or the other salient issues of the time.
In subsequent debates (there were two more in 2016), Trump steered the conversation back to the relevant issues and Clinton’s corrupted record – her infamous emails – and had Americans talking about the need for a change after eight years of Barack Obama. Therefore, the notion of electing an outsider to the White House didn’t seem so frightening or scary.
So yes, Trump could have an excellent showing in a second debate with cackling well-prepared but robotic Kamala and erase the bad memories from September 10 (for the people who thought he blew it, that is).
Two, Trump could use additional face-to-face time to call Kamala on her lack of substance and unwillingness to share policy details on her agenda. Trump could also attempt to refocus the national discourse on the disastrous Biden/Harris record rather than obsessing over his ongoing legal problems (all Democrat generated, of course) and horrifying (to them) prospect of the 45th-president-turned-47th president going back to the White House.
Another way to put it, Donald J. Trump could take a page out of J.D. Vance’s debating book and learn how to cease – for one evening at least – his insults and put downs so voters could listen to his policy proposals rather than home in on his ability to toss out abuses. Yes, the “mean” stuff is fun for Trump’s backers, but we’re trying to win an election here, not score points by defining the opposition’s personal characteristics.
So late in the campaign cycle, conservatives would need Trump to alter his approach to fully take advantage of a second debate. Again, like he’s done in 2016 and 2020. But it might be too little too late, and there’s always the danger the people would see Kamala as “presidential” by allowing her to spout memorized answers for another couple broadcast hours.
Third and last, Trump might benefit from another matchup with Harris by encouraging the low-propensity voters to get off the couch and go to the polls. After all these years, it could be said Trump is probably the most well-defined of any candidate in American political history. There’s little chance he could change anyone’s mind by acting – or not acting – a certain way on Debate Night.
But a second debate would be his final opening to rouse the least likely voters and convince them their votes could make all the difference. Think of it as another couple hours of “earned media” exposure. Trump could reinforce his campaign themes – lower energy prices, low inflation, America First foreign policy and strong national security. And, as my dad would say, common sense.
What would Kamala offer? Joy and vibe? Happiness? More abortions?
All of this being said, there would be disadvantages to debating another time that would outweigh anything positive to be garnered from the experience.
First and foremost, Trump probably couldn’t improve on his running mate’s debate performance and appearing for a second time would stand to reinforce his flaws as a debater. There’s always a risk of being outshone by one’s veep nominee, and Trump would have a difficult task to put Vance in the arena and then come back to Trump again.
Two, as previously alluded to, too many voters have already cast their ballots, meaning the “pool” of available votes has already shrunk so much it wouldn’t be worth it to take time out from campaign efforts to motivate the large and enthusiastic MAGA base in the hopes of attracting new converts to the populist/conservative cause.
This is most definitely a judgment call, an either/or notion that Trump might convince new low-propensity voters to vote for him. The candidate himself doesn’t seem keen on the idea, so if Trump went into the program pre-disposed that he didn’t want to be there, it could be a bad thing.
Third and last, Trump could potentially lose the debate, badly. Donald J. Trump is a very smart man and knows the pulse of the traditional American public better than just about anyone in politics today. But he’s also susceptible to letting his ego take over his presentation at times. And, as has been argued a lot lately, Trump’s life-long tendency to counter-punch when he’s attacked isn’t something easily turned off.
The urge comes naturally to him, and counter-punching has gotten him a long way in life. It just might not be the most advisable thing to do now.
Could any force change Trump’s mind?
As has been true throughout his career, political or otherwise, Trump hasn’t completely closed the door on the possibility of debating Kamala Harris a second time. For those who’ve followed Trump, he’s eternally hesitant to close out possibilities when he could wake up one morning and think, ‘I’d like another shot at Kamala Harris.’
Or, it’s possible something could cause his poll numbers to tank. This isn’t likely, but it could happen. An “October surprise” is always waiting out there. Remember the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape from 2016? It occurred early enough in the cycle where Trump could recover. The timing of a potential “surprise” isn’t knowable.
It’s also plausible Kamala Harris’s own poll following dips so low she’d agree to appearing on terms favorable to Trump, such as Fox News hosting the debate and devising a town hall format, something that appeals to the Republican leader.
With four weeks to go until Election Day, it’s very unlikely Americans will see Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on the same stage together before citizens vote. Because of early voting, it just doesn’t make sense to risk a major gaffe or slip-up with so little time to recover. Unless, of course, you are behind in the polls. Is Kamala Harris trying to tell us something?
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