The Right Resistance: Not much cooling off for a GOP establishment that craves a comeback

What holds the future for the Republican establishment?

It’s something a lot of people are wondering these days as Democrats, independents and Republicans alike attempt to sift through the election data – and their feelings – leftover from president elect Donald J. Trump’s historic trouncing of Democrat nominee cackling Kamala Harris and president senile Joe Biden’s legacy on his way to a 300-plus Electoral Vote victory in Tuesday’s quadrennial national election.

The hours leading up to Trump’s win were no doubt sweet for his longtime backers, most of whom have sacrificed reputation – and friends – to stick with the outsider presidential candidate, a man who the “experts” predicted would destroy the party. “He’s not a real conservative”, many of the naysayers complained. “He’s unelectable”, others urged.

“Character counts”, still others added, figuring conservatives and Republicans could no longer use the character issue against the much looser anything-goes Democrats if they put aside everything they’ve purported to believe just to win an election and retain political power. The thrice married Trump and reported womanizer (in his younger days) wasn’t exactly the embodiment of purity in the mold of the Bush family and Mitt Romney, put it that way.

It seems like ancient history now, but Trump’s initial political foes were based in the Republican Party itself. Despite having helped mentor five successful children and several grandchildren (I don’t remember how many), Trump confronted constant questions about his personal past, something his enemies figured would bring him low in the prudish, judgmental Republican Party.

Besides, Trump didn’t bow low to the big government neoconservative faction in the GOP back then – or ever – and this was the same lineage that spawned the previous three party presidential nominees (George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney). This trio were favorites of the Big Business interests, the ones who gave the party a reputation for caring only about low taxes and cheap illegal immigrant labor while looking down on the “unwashed” working class – they were all Democrats anyway, right?

Needless to say, Trump broke the mold, so much so that most commentators suggest he brought about a complete realignment of the Republican Party’s base constituency. Trump was populist to the core, including promoting positions that seemed to contradict the GOP’s traditional free trade/aggressive foreign policy emphasis. Because of the sharp disagreements, the establishment Never Trump adherents broke away from the new Trump MAGA party. And they haven’t returned, citing irreconcilable personal differences with the bombastic “Bad Orange Man”.

Now, however, the Never Trumpers are dissidents without a party, neither welcomed by the Democrats – except maybe for Liz Cheney herself – or beating down the door at Republican headquarters to be let back in.

Will the outcast Bush-ies make a play to return in 2028 to try and wrest the GOP back from the term-limited Donald Trump and his legions of populist, ends-oriented followers? Does anyone want to talk about this now? In an opinion column titled “Is it too early to talk 2028?”, legendary commentator Cal Thomas wrote earlier this week at The Washington Times:

“… 2028 will be another open contest for the Republican nomination. … Nikki Haley is most likely to run in four years. She has strong support from many Republicans, as shown in the GOP primaries. And at least one other politician could be a formidable candidate: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

“Virginia limits governors to one four-year term, so after next year, Mr. Youngkin will be free to devote his time to contemplating whether he should run for president and assembling a team should that decision be yes.

“Mr. Youngkin is anti-Trump in personality, policy and relationships. He is a kind man, not full of himself. In his State of the Commonwealth address this past January, Mr. Youngkin repeatedly used the word ‘we’ rather than the personal pronoun so favored by Mr. Trump. That was meant to share credit for accomplishments with legislators and voters, not to think more highly of himself than he should.”

Thomas penned the column before he knew how Trump did in the election, so he should be forgiven for neglecting to mention just how big the victory really was and what ramifications it will have on the future. It’s rare in politics when a politician can write his or her own ticket, so to speak, but Tuesday’s result changes everything for lots of potential 2028 hopefuls.

It shouldn’t be forgotten – and won’t be – by the MAGA grassroots that Trump believed he should’ve had the 2024 field to himself before the primary season even started, his reasoning being valuable resources could be saved for the “big” fight to take on senile Joe Biden or whomever the Democrats elevated. Trump’s primary win, he thought, was a foregone conclusion. Polls seemed to bolster Trump’s claim. It wasn’t just braggadocio, at least in the one instance.

Haley was the first to toss her hat in the 2024 ring, reasoning that Trump needed primary competition – from someone – and the former president looked vulnerable to the party establishment and other DC swamp lizards, most of which she knew very well.

Nikki’s journey through the early voting states familiarized her with the process but didn’t clearly separate her from the others, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Both politicians adopted, more or less, the argument Trump was damaged goods because of his age, connection to January 6, 2021 and generally poor reputation with women voters, etc. And moderates who shied away from his “tone”. Different day, same old story.

Youngkin, if he does run in 2028, would compete with Haley for the establishment lane. The Virginian’s accomplishments are impressive, and he was a valuable late race surrogate for Trump this year in the Old Dominion. It didn’t matter in the end, since the blue state (for federal elections) went for cackling Kamala by about five points, a similar margin Crooked Hillary prevailed by in the commonwealth in 2016.

Haley and Youngkin would be on a number of pundits’ shortlists in 2028, particularly longtime ruling elites who will be glad to see Trump vacate his vaunted leadership position as favorite of the party voters. Trump has reached a plateau that very few Republicans ever achieve. From now on, to the great chagrin of the elites, Trump’s name will be mentioned alongside Reagan’s.

Trump came of political age in the Obama era and defeated two of the Democrats’ most cherished figures – Hillary and Joe Biden (via cackling Kamala Harris) – no easy task.

Scholars will debate for a long time whether any of the not-Trump Republicans, including Haley, DeSantis and Youngkin, could’ve won the election. Sure, there would’ve been a sizable group of Republicans who would back anyone against the Democrat nominee – just as they did for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 – but would the newer vintage MAGA believers go along with anyone in Trump’s place?

That’s the dilemma in trying to replace Trump, because he has built a following of loyalists who aren’t particularly political, but they still appreciate Trump’s unique gifts and fighting spirit. No one would claim Trump is a gifted orator and there are others who know policy better than the 45th (and 47th) president, but Trump’s other-worldly political instincts cannot be discounted.

Whoever seeks to replace him after he “retires” will need the “it” factor more than most. Trump is more than just a showman who dabbled in politics and mastered communications in a similar way to Ronald Reagan. He’s correct when he claims that MAGA is a grassroots movement that captured the imaginations of the “forgotten Americans.”

No, MAGA brought on board former Democrat constituencies. The question will be whether other pols have the magic it takes to motivate these new Republican voters to participate and back the heir apparent.

Thomas mentioned Haley and Youngkin, but would either fill Trump’s shoes? Theoretically, Haley would start as a favorite for the 2028 nomination. She’s the “next in line” in a party that honors runner ups in ensuing presidential cycles. Further, she’s good on the stump, appeals to groups that Trump didn’t do well with and will be young enough to impress voters looking to replace an 82-year-old president once he’s run his course.

I just don’t see Nikki catching on. She’s too old-style Republican in an age when the party has changed drastically. As cackling Kamala herself would say, “there’s no going back.” The MAGA grassroots will look for somebody with Trump-like qualities as well as his America First platform.

Names? How about Josh Hawley. Or Tom Cotton. Or a mid-forties J.D. Vance (after a term as Trump’s vice president)?

And then there’s Ron DeSantis, who will have more experience as one of the nation’s most successful governors. Trump and the Floridian appear to have become friends again, which will be important.

Are Haley and Trump friends? I wouldn’t say so. Do you think Trump is going to support someone who he doesn’t believe will cherish his legacy and continue the mission?

Nikki is and always has been a political opportunist. She’s hanging around and saying nice things about Trump simply to preserve any semblance of competitiveness she has in Donald Trump’s Republican Party. Time and four years of another Trump term will separate the pretenders from the challengers.

The Republican establishment is probably as low as it’s been since the early days of Ronald Reagan’s presidency, but it doesn’t mean they’ve gone away. Or that they’ll give up. Whoever seeks to fill Trump’s shoes at the end of his second presidency must take on his spirit as well as his agenda. The future is uncertain for the establishment. Time will tell who emerges.

• Joe Biden economy

• inflation

• Biden cognitive decline

• gas prices,

• Nancy Pelosi

• Biden senile

• Kamala Harris candidacy

• Donald Trump campaign

• Harris Trump debates

• J.D. Vance

• Kamala vice president

• Speaker Mike Johnson

• Donald Trump assassination

• Donald Trump

• 2024 presidential election

• Tim Walz