Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, don’t put the cart before the horse, don’t measure the drapes in the White House before receiving keys to the front door, and, when it comes to planning your administration, don’t start making contingency lists for the transition before the votes have even been counted after the polls close on Election Night.
Or so the thinking has been in the past. Taking something for granted usually results in unpleasant circumstances for those who do too much planning before something even happens, but in the case of devising a new administration, it’s definitely never too soon to start.
Both presidential candidates have apparently begun the process, with vice president cackling Kamala Harris enjoying a huge head start, mostly because her “team” is already largely doing damage. No doubt that Kamala would desire a good deal of turnover as well – surely at the top -- but at least the Biden appointees who are in place would not necessarily be antagonistic to the new faces greeting them come mid-January.
This is only a hunch, but Democrats usually accept the new direction of the country and aren’t likely to make too many waves as long as it’s one of their own
But the potential newcomers for the Trump 2.0 administration are different. Whoever accepts a position or appointment to work for Trump must not only ready themselves for an incredibly demanding and impatient boss, they must also be prepared for institutional barriers, the ones no one ever talks about. This isn’t campaign work any longer. Getting Americans to vote for you is one thing; actually moving the proverbial needle on policy is quite another.
In an article titled, “Trump delaying transition efforts despite 2016 ‘disaster’”, Mabinty Quarshie reported at the Washington Examiner last week:
“Should former President Donald Trump win the 2024 election, he would be more prepared to lead the government than he was before his first victory in 2016, when he was a political novice who upended conventional norms. An outside group aligned with Trump has compiled the resumes of candidates for the thousands of political appointments needed to fill out the government, and strategists see the 2024 campaign as far more disciplined than the team that helped Trump win eight years ago.
“But just weeks before Election Day, his campaign has yet to tap into federal resources available for both candidates’ transition teams. Trump’s campaign says there haven’t been any ‘formal discussions’ about who will be in his Cabinet during a second administration.
“However, there are plenty of highly qualified lawmakers jockeying to serve in his administration, including his former Republican presidential rivals. ‘President Trump announced a Trump Vance transition leadership group to initiate the process of preparing for what comes after the election,’ Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung told the Washington Examiner in a statement. ‘But formal discussions of who will serve in a second Trump Administration is premature. President Trump will oversee a smooth transition and choose the best people for his Cabinet to undo all the damage dangerously liberal Kamala Harris has done to our country.’”
It's a gargantuan task, no question. The matter of going from one administration to the next has been complicated by contemporary politics, modern communications, social media, and the realities of interest groups who contributed generously to the candidate’s campaign. They all want a cut of the say-so.
As Abraham Lincoln famously observed when commenting on patronage seekers wanting something from him in the 1860s, there were “too many pigs for the teats.”
I’m not part of the loop that discusses such things, but to me, Cheung’s statement sounded a lot like what Trump said prior to Election Day in 2016. Back then, if you recall, Trump regularly boasted about how prepared he’d be to take over, suggesting that he knew all of the mavens of private industry, the movers n’ shakers, the folks who made the American economic engine hum.
This was certainly true, as Trump’s business credentials put him in touch with a who’s who of private leaders who knew the nuts and bolts about their respective industries, stellar credentials in just about everybody’s book. But did they know politics and government?
Witnessing the transition back then and the individuals Trump originally tapped to lead his administration, it was evident the men and women who understood business and markets were clearly not prepared for the way the executive branch worked. If you recall, the department heads faced roadblock after roadblock in terms of getting things done quickly.
Starting with senate confirmation, nothing ever moves swiftly in Washington, particularly with working appointments through a highly partisan, emotionally charged and pigheaded political system populated by people who couldn’t give a squat about whether you (Trump) succeed or if you fail. In fact, it was obvious Democrats didn’t want Trump to do well, for if Trump brought about immediate downsizing and efficiency improvements, a lot of bureaucratic heads would roll.
And if Trump was impatient about getting started eight years ago, the urgency will be that much greater this time around.
Quarshie’s article contained a number of tidbits on Trump’s current transition motives, the new team in charge (who wasn’t in place in 2016) and an awareness of what needed to be done to be more prepared when noon on January 20 (Inauguration Day) arrives this time. You may recall there was turmoil from the start eight years ago, with aides such as co-Chief of Staff Steve Bannon being inherently suspicious (no doubt, with good reason) regarding working with the party establishment to get things running.
There’s much less tension in 2024, as it’s Trump’s party now. Even the GOP congressional leaders are mostly Trump loyalists, though we can definitely count on resistance to a lot of what Trump advocates due to small (if any) partisan majorities and the entrenched faction of RINOs who will demand their share of favors in order to lend their support for the overall effort.
Democrats may not agree, but Donald Trump, in 2017 after taking office, was dead set on keeping his campaign promises to the letter. From Day One, his executive orders and presidential actions were directed at some of his most earnest vows to the American People, starting with making sure that NATO members began paying their fair share, something most incoming presidents have repeatedly said in the past but always with a wink and a gesture indicating they never really meant it.
Trump wasn’t that kind of man. And when the pace of Washington wouldn’t allow for him to do what he said he wanted to do, it caused issues.
One of Trump’s initial difficulties was staffing his own White House. While Trump had done an extensive set of interviews regarding cabinet positions and settled on qualified people to be the “name” talent heading the agencies, the undersecretary jobs often went unfilled. The outgoing Obama personnel who were in place until the new Trump appointees arrived to take over weren’t exactly cooperative, either.
The political atmosphere in the capital wasn’t much better back then than it is now, but it’s almost a sure thing that Biden leftovers won’t be anxious to help their Trump administration replacements come in anxious to undo and change just about everything senile Joe’s DEI crew have implemented in the intervening time.
Be particularly prepared to hear about how the career lifer staff at places like the State Department resign or retire en masse, their delicate sensibilities unable or unwilling to handle being ordered around by the likes of a Trump appointee who they view as unqualified to understand the intricacies of diplomacy or international relations. Here’s thinking the Biden holdovers will be actively hostile to the new regime. Will anything get done?
Perhaps I’m making too much of the divided political environment, but Trump and his new appointees will represent a dire threat to “The Swamp” and the way things have always been done in Washington. Seeing as Trump has “only” one more term left, he must be determined to make the most of every day. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Trump’s fourth year was diverted and ruined by the COVID farce, so he’s even more itchy to rack up accomplishments.
Further, Trump may have a hard time finding people to serve because he is, in effect, a lame duck the moment he takes his oath of office.
There is some good news, however. Though the campaign won’t elaborate on who (if any) is being looked over for cabinet-level positions, Trump himself is a lot different than he was in 2017. While I wouldn’t exactly call him naïve back then, he had a view that he could run the government kind of like he oversaw his companies. You know, he would ask for something and people would actually do it.
Quarshie’s report suggested that Trump saw himself more as the head of government or state, kind of a prime minister who set policy and Congress would implement his wishes. He rapidly discovered that he’d have to fight for everything he got, and the art of persuasion was needed to fill gaps. And, let’s face it, he took way too long to purge not only the deadwood in government, but also those around him who sought to ruin him.
Loyalty to his agenda will be a prerequisite for employment in the Trump administration this time. The firm he placed in charge will have done a lot of the legwork in terms of pinpointing individuals to fill a great many of the appointed positions.
The rest will take time to get done. Here’s thinking Trump did a fantastic job in finding J.D. Vance to be his running mate, a man who’s not only loyal to the movement, but also imminently articulate and capable of filling holes in the personnel roster. So he’s got that going for him. Which is nice.
The problem of who gets to plan the next administration will presumably be resolved on Election Day, or hopefully, soon thereafter. While it’s never good to get too far ahead of oneself, the task of putting together a new government is too large to be accomplished overnight. Trump will be much more prepared to do it right from the get-go this time.
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