Narrowness of Republican House majority already shines a spotlight on the 2026 federal midterms
Seeing as today is the last unofficial day of the holiday season (the end of the first week after the New Year’s holiday), it’s a safe bet to assume not many Americans realize that it’s the first day of the new congressional term as well.
With most of the news focus concentrating on the transition between the outgoing (good riddance!) administration of senile Joe Biden and 2024 presidential loser cackling Kamala Harris – and the incoming new leadership of victors Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance, the nation’s attention has mostly been diverted away from the constitutional commencing of the new Congress.
In years past on this date, Americans have marked the election and swearing in of new Speakers and the welcoming of freshman representatives and senators as well as accenting the exits of former officeholders who were defeated in elections or, on the rare occasion, retired from Washington entirely. Today, longtime Republican majority/minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell will pass the proverbial torch after a long, long time as head of the GOP upper chamber crew.
But there’s little doubt many observers will be preoccupied with the slim Republican House majority and how difficult it will be, regardless of the successes of the majority in implementing the new president’s MAGA agenda, to maintain chamber control after the 2026 federal midterm elections.
Yes, that’s right, Congress hasn’t even officially been sworn-in and already the politicians are fixated on the next election, which is almost two years away and fully dependent on time, circumstances and events as to who will be in power come 2027. Democrats will rely on history and typical power swings to boot the GOP out of the Speaker’s chair, as is typically the case in a president’s first election after assuming the White House.
Can Trump avoid the so-called midterm curse? In an article titled “Could 2024 Trump’s Victory Counter a 2026 ‘Midterm Curse’?”, Susan Crabtree wrote at American Greatness on Christmas Day:
“Two years from now some 14 Democratic House members will be defending districts Trump won, compared to just three Republicans in districts carried by Vice President Kamala Harris...
“One reason House majorities have grown slimmer in recent years is the increasingly sophisticated redistricting fights waged by both parties. Over the last decade, Democrats and Republicans have engaged in a protracted battle over the redrawing of congressional districts involving millions of dollars in litigation, thousands of hours of closed-door negotiations, and multiple Supreme Court showdowns.
“Partly because of their efforts, Democrats limited the House majority to five seats this year – 220 to Democrats’ 215. But because of Trump’s popular vote victory, winning back the majority in 2026 will require Democrats to carve a path through Trump territory.”
Republicans certainly hope this is the case. Whereas Democrats have notoriously enjoyed national popular vote victories in twenty-first century presidential elections – the exceptions being 2004 and, somewhat surprisingly, this year – Republicans have done well in capturing more votes for House candidates. 2022 showed Republicans with a seven million vote advantage over Democrats, yet the size of the GOP’s seat majority did not reflect the preponderance and the citizens’ preferences.
The Cook Political Report showed Republicans winning a little less than 4 million more votes than Democrats did in November, yet “only” hold a five seat majority going into this week.
Crabtree’s article does a terrific job in explaining the behind-the-scenes machinations of the parties in maneuvering redistricting and the litigation system to maximize their winning seekers. Needless to say, generally speaking, Democrats have managed to keep the margins close in the past couple elections.
According to Crabtree, several states will once again figure prominently in the 2026 midterms, and the parties’ wrangling over district maps doesn’t figure to let up in the next year and a half. Therefore, as with the presidential election, it will be imperative for Republicans to set a goal of winning on the district level beyond the margin of fraud, just as they did in 2024 to provide Donald J. Trump with a comfortable Electoral College majority.
Trump’s win was so thorough we’ve heard very little griping and scheming by Democrats in terms of attempts to overturn the result. Here’s thinking Democrats really don’t want to encourage a deep dive into elections integrity for the recently concluded vote – or they may stir up a can of legal worms they didn’t intend to unleash.
Beyond the procedural matters, how can Trump avoid a midterm curse?
Republican ground game upgrades will be even more vital in a lower turnout midterm election
After an election like 2024’s, it’s always tempting for the winning party’s backers to assume that the good electoral tidings will last forever and all they’ll need to sustain the momentum is ride the leadership of the prevailing pol to eternal bliss.
Democrats figured they’d only have to talk about Obama, Obama, Obama to enjoy a permanent Democrat advantage after 2008. They were proved wrong in the Republican wave election of 2010 (known as the Tea Party election, which rose up in response to Obama’s bailouts and the passing of Obamacare in 2010) and a similarly strong performance by the GOP in 2014.
Obama may have the “it” factor when his name is on the ballot, but voters didn’t extend the good feeling to Democrat congressional critters.
Republicans also went into their shells after the 2018 midterms. With Democrats retaking the House after that year, Nancy Pelosi got her wish – Trump was impeached by the House over a stupid phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Elections really do have consequences.
Giddy Republicans may get ahead of themselves and count on using the good name of Donald J. Trump to motivate his 77 million-plus 2024 voters to be just as wild about pulling the lever for GOP candidates in 2026. I wouldn’t bank on it. Trump is a political phenomenon all to himself and the marginal occasional voter won’t necessarily be wowed by generic Republicans.
That’s just reality. Plus, Republicans have a habit of screwing up numbers advantages. Why else are they called “The Stupid Party”?
Trump and the GOP benefited from improved get out the vote efforts last November. Grassroots organizations led by Charlie Kirk and Ned Ryun, among others, used innovations in communications and good old fashioned data analysis to produce more votes for Trump. They’ll need to continue their good work in 2026 to stave off a “curse” in the midterms.
Trump’s success – and popularity – will have a major impact on the GOP’s 2026 fortunes
There’s no doubting that the redistricting map battles and litigation detailed in Crabtree’s report will determine the ultimate outcome of a good many races, but the single largest factor in the Republicans’ 2026 outcome will be whether the Trump MAGA agenda’s changes show up in the economy.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that policy evolutions such as greater immigration enforcement, stepped up deportations, setting the energy-producing sector free and reducing the bureaucratic regulatory burden will make a difference in the overall economy, but will the gains show up at the kitchen table?
Plus, the establishment media and Democrats will spare no effort to smear everything Trump and his cabinet officers do. Keeping up Trump’s positive approval numbers will make all the difference at the ballot box in 2026.
It will require a total party effort to boost the GOP campaigns less than two years from now. There’s no time to relax and be content with the 2024 win. The voters will ask, rightfully so, “What have you done for me lately?” Managing the polls will demand all of Donald Trump’s skills. And the “midterm curse” will take care of itself accordingly.
Joe Biden economy
inflation
Biden cognitive decline
gas prices,
Nancy Pelosi
Biden senile
Kamala Harris candidacy
Donald Trump campaign
Harris Trump debates
J.D. Vance
Kamala vice president
Speaker Mike Johnson
Donald Trump assassination
Donald Trump
2024 presidential election
Tim Walz
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