Through a recent article in his must-read Committee to Unleash Prosperity Hotline our friend Steve Moore clued us into a very interesting poll. It turns out that despite the GOP Senate’s abysmal record of inaction on the Trump agenda, a recent YouGov poll found that Democrats have lost ground in party affiliation with virtually every demographic group.
According to a deep dive analysis of the poll:
The analysis notes that, while Americans have identified more with Democrats than any other party for the last 20 years, that net advantage, however, is shrinking to almost nothing. It is now down from D+9 in 2007 to just D+2 today.
Those who are or lean Democrat have shrunk from 49 to 40 percent, while Republicans remain stagnant at 38 percent. Those who identify with neither party have grown substantially from 13 to 22 percent.
Since 2016, Democrats have lost support with every age demographic aside from Gen-Z. They’ve lost 8 points among millennials, 14 among Gen X, 10 among Baby Boomers, and 13 among the Silent Generation.
They’ve also lost substantially with every race since 2007, aside from Asians. Support among whites has fallen by 10 points, Latinos by 19 points, and blacks by 24 points.
The vast drop in African-American support has been devastating to Democrats. As their most reliable voting block the Black vote is the only thing that has kept their Congressional numbers up. The Black vote has regularly returned Far Left Progressive Members of Congress from their urban strongholds, but suburban Blacks are leaving the Democrats in droves.
As Steve noted, this isn't to say that voters like Republicans. They don't. It means more and more voters regard the AOC/Zohran Mamdani takeover of the Democratic Party as looney and dangerous.
So, can being the lesser of two evils save Republicans in the Midterms?
Just 30% of registered voters in an NBC News poll view the Democratic Party positively, compared to 52% who view it negatively.
The poll, the latest over the past year to indicate the Democratic Party brand, in some cases, hitting historic lows, comes as Democrats aim to escape the political wilderness and win back House and Senate majorities in the 2026 midterm elections.
Last week in an article for The Hill, Glenn C. Altschuler and David Wippman observed that betting markets often outperform election forecasters. In 2024, when polls showed the presidential race was a toss-up, they had President Trump as the clear favorite.
This week, betting markets are giving Democrats about an 85 percent chance of gaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in this year’s midterms, and an almost 50-50 shot at control of the U.S. Senate.
How can that be when this week's Economist / YouGov Poll finds that 45% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, while 42% say they would vote for the Republican candidate. This 3-point Democratic lead is among Democrats' smallest advantages on congressional vote intention in months; 4- or 5-point Democratic leads have been more common, and Democrats have occasionally led by 6 or 7 points.
The good news is that the Democrats' 3-point lead is only slightly larger than the 2-point lead Democrats had at this point in the 2022 and 2024 elections. In both of those elections, Republicans won small majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The shrinking Democratic lead isn't because fewer registered voters plan to vote for Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Since the February 6 - 9, 2026 Economist / YouGov Poll, support for Democrats has risen to 45% from 44%. But support for Republicans has risen by more, to 42% from 38%. The share of registered voters who say that they don't know for which party's candidate they'd vote for Congress, that they'd vote for another candidate, or that they wouldn't vote has fallen to 13% from 17% over the same span.
But here’s the problem for the GOP – as much as he will deny it, it looks to many observers like the Senate’s Republican Majority Leader John Thune is deliberately sabotaging the Midterms. It is undeniably true that in recent years Senate Republicans have always played defense, never offense. They talk a good game, but when it's time to implement, they rarely act – but this is a whole new level of failure.
What’s even more telling is that these actions to block the Trump agenda are taking place in a political environment in which Democrats, having moved to the Far Lunatic Left, are more unpopular than ever, making Republican inaction the only thing more unpopular than crazy Democrats.
Republicans who are counting being saved by Democrat craziness need to be reminded that the most powerful motivator in politics is “send them a message” and it looks to us like this poll confirms our belief that voters detest the DC Uniparty and are looking for an alternative – and in this kind of environment, any alternative might do – including the Loony Left that has taken over the Democratic Party.
According to a deep dive analysis of the poll:
Aside from Asians, the only group to see the support for Democrats increase is among white men with a college degree. That's because a majority of white men with a college degree are millennials and Gen-Z. Black men without a college degree have run away from identifying with Democrats the most, falling by 36 points.
The analysis notes that, while Americans have identified more with Democrats than any other party for the last 20 years, that net advantage, however, is shrinking to almost nothing. It is now down from D+9 in 2007 to just D+2 today.
Those who are or lean Democrat have shrunk from 49 to 40 percent, while Republicans remain stagnant at 38 percent. Those who identify with neither party have grown substantially from 13 to 22 percent.
Since 2016, Democrats have lost support with every age demographic aside from Gen-Z. They’ve lost 8 points among millennials, 14 among Gen X, 10 among Baby Boomers, and 13 among the Silent Generation.
They’ve also lost substantially with every race since 2007, aside from Asians. Support among whites has fallen by 10 points, Latinos by 19 points, and blacks by 24 points.
The vast drop in African-American support has been devastating to Democrats. As their most reliable voting block the Black vote is the only thing that has kept their Congressional numbers up. The Black vote has regularly returned Far Left Progressive Members of Congress from their urban strongholds, but suburban Blacks are leaving the Democrats in droves.
As Steve noted, this isn't to say that voters like Republicans. They don't. It means more and more voters regard the AOC/Zohran Mamdani takeover of the Democratic Party as looney and dangerous.
So, can being the lesser of two evils save Republicans in the Midterms?
Just 30% of registered voters in an NBC News poll view the Democratic Party positively, compared to 52% who view it negatively.
The poll, the latest over the past year to indicate the Democratic Party brand, in some cases, hitting historic lows, comes as Democrats aim to escape the political wilderness and win back House and Senate majorities in the 2026 midterm elections.
Last week in an article for The Hill, Glenn C. Altschuler and David Wippman observed that betting markets often outperform election forecasters. In 2024, when polls showed the presidential race was a toss-up, they had President Trump as the clear favorite.
This week, betting markets are giving Democrats about an 85 percent chance of gaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in this year’s midterms, and an almost 50-50 shot at control of the U.S. Senate.
How can that be when this week's Economist / YouGov Poll finds that 45% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, while 42% say they would vote for the Republican candidate. This 3-point Democratic lead is among Democrats' smallest advantages on congressional vote intention in months; 4- or 5-point Democratic leads have been more common, and Democrats have occasionally led by 6 or 7 points.
The good news is that the Democrats' 3-point lead is only slightly larger than the 2-point lead Democrats had at this point in the 2022 and 2024 elections. In both of those elections, Republicans won small majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The shrinking Democratic lead isn't because fewer registered voters plan to vote for Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Since the February 6 - 9, 2026 Economist / YouGov Poll, support for Democrats has risen to 45% from 44%. But support for Republicans has risen by more, to 42% from 38%. The share of registered voters who say that they don't know for which party's candidate they'd vote for Congress, that they'd vote for another candidate, or that they wouldn't vote has fallen to 13% from 17% over the same span.
But here’s the problem for the GOP – as much as he will deny it, it looks to many observers like the Senate’s Republican Majority Leader John Thune is deliberately sabotaging the Midterms. It is undeniably true that in recent years Senate Republicans have always played defense, never offense. They talk a good game, but when it's time to implement, they rarely act – but this is a whole new level of failure.
What’s even more telling is that these actions to block the Trump agenda are taking place in a political environment in which Democrats, having moved to the Far Lunatic Left, are more unpopular than ever, making Republican inaction the only thing more unpopular than crazy Democrats.
Republicans who are counting being saved by Democrat craziness need to be reminded that the most powerful motivator in politics is “send them a message” and it looks to us like this poll confirms our belief that voters detest the DC Uniparty and are looking for an alternative – and in this kind of environment, any alternative might do – including the Loony Left that has taken over the Democratic Party.
