Yesterday, the Trump Administration unleashed Operation Economic Outcast, an unprecedented campaign to “sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
After President Trump and the overwhelming might of the U.S. military dismantled Iran’s military capabilities and crippled its nuclear program, the Trump Administration said America is entering the endgame with the single greatest financial offensive ever mounted against an adversary.
During the announcement press conference and in an op-ed in the Financial Times, Secretary Scott Bessent said all the right things:
President Donald Trump and the overwhelming might of our military have significantly dismantled Iran’s military capabilities and weakened its nuclear programme. Now we are entering the endgame. At dawn begins an economic D-Day — the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary… The world should understand that our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains the tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.
- “The new sectoral sanctions determinations issued today target five of Iran’s most vital lifelines that it exploits in other countries: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. These measures broaden secondary sanctions risk for anyone foolish enough to continue conducting business with this regime.” (Watch)
- “Let there be no ambiguity as to the position of the United States: an economic engagement of any kind with this murderous regime will expose those responsible to the full reach of American power.” (Watch)
- “Any entity that facilitates money laundering on behalf of Iran will be removed from the U.S. Dollar system. The clock just started ticking.” (Watch)
- “Nations that facilitate any interactions with the regime should quickly heed our message. Those who stand with the United States will reap the rewards of our partnership; those who tether themselves to the Iranian regime should expect to share in the isolation of a withering regime.” (Watch)
However, this is not the first time the President and his team have announced “unprecedented” sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they have always seemed to founder on the rock of the Ayatollahs’ most important ally – and our other most implacable enemy – Communist China.
Notably absent from Secretary Bessant’s five sectors was oil, although that sector has been sanctioned multiple times in the past, with little impact on the Red Chinese.
As Gerald Posner observed in a lengthy post to X, the tell is always Communist China.
Every previous round of “maximum pressure” evaporated the moment it required real consequences for Red Chinese buyers and banks. Yesterday’s rollout named Communist China as a transshipment hub for Iranian oil. Communist China still buys about 90% of Iran’s oil. Until Beijing’s refiners, banks, and tankers actually pull back, it is just another line in a press release. Bessent and Treasury know what the hammer looks like. The only question left is whether they drop it, wrote Mr. Posner.
For example, we know Iran is using the 10,400-kilometer China-Iran railway corridor that stretches from the Chinese city of Xi’an to Tehran. The railway passes through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan before arriving in Iran, according to thediplomat.com. Bloomberg reports that cargo shipments from Xi’an to Tehran have increased from one per week to “one every three to four days” since the beginning of the U.S. blockade in April.
Likewise, in November 2025, Interfax reported that the first freight train from Russia to Iran arrived in Aprin, outside Tehran, after a 12-day journey through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Will the Russians face any new sanctions or consequences, given the already heavy sanctions they face over the invasion of Ukraine?
And, what are the economic consequences for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan for allowing this traffic to Iran? And will those consequences, if imposed, have any effect?
No one really knows at this point.
Without more specificity, and public evidence that all of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s economic lifelines, however tenuous or small, have been disrupted or terminated, it is hard to argue with Mr. Posner’s conclusion that the White House did what it has done time and again on Iran: oversold what was coming.
We hope the new round of sanctions has the desired effect and that they result in the permanent termination of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and the end of hostilities between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States.
However, after almost 50 years of war we doubt that will be the result and the best we can hope for is that they will further cripple Iran, and make the necessary military action to achieve our goals less costly, and more likely to take place the day after the midterm elections conclude.
