The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. voters have already made up their mind about who they will vote for in the November midterm elections, but 30% are still deciding.
Meaning that less than two months before the midterm elections, those who will decide the election – nearly a third of voters – are still making up their minds and could be motivated to vote Republican with the right message.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats and 66% of Republicans have made up their mind who to vote for. However, among those not affiliated with either major party, less than half (49%) have their minds made up already, while 42% are still deciding.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of Likely Voters say their midterm vote is mainly for the party of their choice, while 18% say they’ll be voting against the other party, and 16% are not sure.
Seventy-eight percent (78) of Democrats and 73% of Republicans say their vote in the midterms will be mainly for their own party. Among unaffiliated voters, 46% will be voting for the party of their choice, 26% will be voting against the other party, and 28% are not sure.
Significantly more men (69%) than women voters (59%) have already made up their mind about who they will vote for in the midterm elections. Women voters are slightly more likely than men to say their midterm vote will be for the party of their choice.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of whites, 60% of black voters, 61% of Hispanics and 50% of other minorities have their minds made up about who they’ll vote for in the midterms. Hispanics are most likely to say their midterm vote will be against the other party.
Younger voters are less likely than their elders to have already decided their midterm vote. Just 46% of those under 30 have made up their mind about who they will vote for, compared to 81% of voters 65 and older.
Nearly identical percentages of liberal (70%) and conservative voters (69%) have already made up their minds about who they’ll vote for in the midterms, compared to 56% of moderates.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – are most likely to say they have already made up their mind about who they will vote for in the November midterm elections. Those with annual incomes between $100,000 and $200,000 are most likely to say their midterm vote will be against the other party.
Now, theres an alarming indicator in this poll: Seventy-two percent (72%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election have already made up their minds about who they’ll vote for in the midterms, compared to 63% of those who voted for Donald Trump. That metric shows a concerning lack of commitment and intensity in the MAGA coalition in the run-up to the 2026 midterms.
