The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters say the economy will be the most important issue in determining their vote in the midterms – almost unchanged since February. Sixteen percent (16%) see immigration as the top issue, 11% view national security as most important in November, and 10% say health care.
It appears that James Carville’s famous aphorism from the 1992 Bill Clinton campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid” still holds: Every other issue registers in single digits – education (3%), climate change (3%), taxes (2%) and energy policy (1%) – while four percent (4%) say some other issue matters most in determining their vote this fall.
Among those likely to vote in the midterms, 47% say their vote will be to oppose President Donald Trump’s agenda, while 37% will vote to support the president’s agenda and 14% say their vote in November will not have much to do with Trump’s agenda.
Of those surveyed, 87% say they’re likely to vote in this November’s midterm congressional elections, including 71% who are Very Likely to vote. Among the Very Likely midterm voters, 50% say their vote will be to oppose Trump’s agenda.
There is no clear “enthusiasm gap” between the two major parties. Seventy-three percent (73%) of both Democrats and Republicans say they are Very Likely to vote in November, as are 66% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
In terms of issues, the economy is at the top of the list for more Democrats (54%) than Republicans (40%) or unaffiliated voters (49%). Republicans are significantly more likely to name immigration or national security as their most important midterm issue, and Democrats are more likely than other voters to identify health care as the top issue.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats say their midterm vote will be about opposing Trump’s agenda, while 69% of Republicans will be voting to support the president’s agenda. Among unaffiliated voters, 43% say they’ll vote to oppose Trump’s agenda, 34% will be voting to support the president, and 22% say their vote in November will not have much to do with Trump’s agenda.
There is a net 24-point “gender gap” on the question of supporting or opposing Trump’s agenda. Significantly more women voters say they will vote in the midterms to oppose (52%) rather than support (30%) the president’s agenda, while men are slightly more likely to support (45%) rather than oppose (43%) Trump’s agenda.
Seventy-eighty eight percent (78%) of whites, 50% of black voters, 56% of Hispanics and 69% of other minorities say they are Very Likely to vote in this November’s midterm congressional elections. Black voters are most likely to say their midterm vote will be about opposing Trump’s agenda.
Older voters are significantly more likely to say they’ll vote in the midterms. Among those 65 and older, 97% say they are Very Likely to vote in November, compared to just 38% of voters under 30.
Among likely midterm voters who voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 74% say their vote in November will be about supporting Trump’s agenda, while 86% of Kamala Harris will be voting against the president’s agenda.
