A lot of Republicans are allegedly thinking about skipping this election. If you are one of them, before you decide, look at this report on the border numbers prepared by our friends Jennica Pounds (@DataRepublican) and Mike Howell and his team at the Oversight Project.
In December 2023, the peak month of the Biden open borders policy, the U.S. Border Patrol and port officers recorded 301,981encounters at the southwest border… In just one month.
Every bar in the graph below is one month of Customs and Border Patrol's own count. The gray bars run from October 2020 to January 2025. The red bars start in February 2025, the first full month after the second inauguration of President Donald J. Trump.
Here’s a quick breakdown to make it easy:
301,981 encounters in Dec 2023, the peak month
12,242 encounters in Aug 2026, the latest month
−96% from the peak to the latest month
19 straight months below the lowest month of the four years before
The lowest month from October 2020 through January 2025 was 61,445 (Jan 2025). Since February 2025, no month has gone above 13,542.
One Biden month vs. nineteen Trump months.
Add up every month since February 2025. December 2023 alone is still bigger.
What’s more, families and children nearly stopped arriving.
Compare the last full fiscal year before the inauguration with the current one, which is one month short.
It didn't happen by accident.
The drop starts the month the policies changed. Three actions signed on the first day:
- Jan 20, 2025: National emergency declared at the southern border. White House, "Declaring a National Emergency at the Southern Border"
- Jan 20, 2025: "Securing Our Borders" order: resume Remain in Mexico, end catch-and-release, build physical barriers. White House, "Securing Our Borders"
- Jan 20, 2025: The U.S. Refugee Admissions Program suspended pending review. Federal Register, "Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program"
- Feb 2025 – Aug 2026: 19 straight months between 7,822 and 13,542 encounters. CBP Nationwide Encounters
For 35 years the share of foreign-born residents kept climbing.
The share of U.S. residents born abroad rose from 7.9% in 1990 to 14.1% in 2020 – 24. The border numbers above show the first sharp break in the flow behind that line.
NOTE: These two charts measure different things. The border chart counts encounters at the border, not residents. The foreign-born line counts everyone living here who was born abroad, and most of them are citizens, green-card holders or visa holders. Census data also runs a few years behind: its latest window ends in 2024, so it doesn't show the change since 2025 yet. The point is that the inbound flow of illegal border crossers has been driving the percentage of foreign-born residents up at an alarming rate and now, thanks to President Trump’s policies, that has stopped.
All of this was done through Executive Orders, and Executive Orders can be undone.
The border numbers changed because of executive action. This Congress followed through: it ended food-stamp eligibility for refugees and asylees in July 2025, ended their federal Medicaid eligibility as of October 1, and cut refugee funding 18% for 2026.
The White House asked for deeper cuts. Getting them takes more Republican votes, not fewer. That's on the ballot.
If you're tired, disappointed, or sure it's already won — vote anyway.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
