President Trump's dramatic U-turn indicates he has run out of patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but does this change in plan and rhetoric portend a real reversal of his policy of no new foreign wars or entanglements?
It appears that President Trump’s sincere desire to be a peacemaker and to improve the lives of people everywhere through the benefits of trade and commerce has run-up hard against the realities of Putin’s ideology and the imperatives of how the Russian dictator stays in power.
Trump says Moscow needs to get Russia's economy back on track.
He says Russia has "tremendous potential" and adds that it should use its resources for trade rather than a war.
"I speak to him a lot," Trump says of Russia's President Putin.
He says the conversations are very pleasant, but adds the talk "doesn't mean anything" once missiles hit cities.
Back in April, Donald Trump also publicly wondered whether Russian President Vladimir Putin was sincerely interested in ending the war in Ukraine, as he continued a bombing campaign that included targeting civilian structures.
“It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war; he’s just tapping me along,” he posted on his Truth Social social media platform.
Fast forward to May, when the leaders of four major European nations, France, Germany, the UK and Poland, came to Kyiv and laid down a ceasefire ultimatum to Moscow or face crippling sanctions.
But President Putin swiftly averted this by offering 'direct talks' with Ukraine in Istanbul, which Trump more or less ordered Ukraine’s leader to attend. He duly did, Putin didn’t show up and Trump did nothing.
Net effect: the ceasefire ultimatum went nowhere.
This time may be different, observed the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher. President Trump has gone public, venting his frustration with Vladimir Putin.
But 50 days gives the Kremlin plenty of room for maneuver. Time, in other words, in which to come up with a counter offer that forestalls the threatened sanctions.
At the present rate of fire, 50 days also theoretically gives Russia time to launch up to a further 25,000 drones and missiles at Ukraine during its nightly bombardments, noted Mr. Zurcher.
The problem for President Trump is that the currency he is using to bargain with is largely worthless to Vladimir Putin. Just as it is with Iran’s Ayatollahs, trade and economic advancement for the average citizen of the country are completely meaningless to Putin.
The only things that matter to Putin are the life of the regime (which means preserving his life and the lives of his family) and the ultimate victory of his “Eurasianist National Bolshevism” movement in achieving its territorial goals.
So, much as we hate to say it, the announcement of another 50-day window for negotiations and the piecemeal delivery of weapons appears to be very much the same thing Joe Biden, and his allies in the Endless War Party did; simply pump money into Ukraine on an ad hoc, “maybe this will keep them in the fight” basis.
In contrast to this naïve wishful thinking President Trump would profitably look to the strategy President Ronald Reagan used to defeat the Soviet Union, the predecessor of Putin’s Russia.
Ronald Reagan actually had a plan to defeat the Soviet Union, and it wasn’t just “we win, they lose.”
Ronald Reagan and his team correctly analyzed the weaknesses of the Soviet Union and attacked those weaknesses, for example the Soviet’s reliance on energy revenues to prop up their economy prompted Reagan to dispatch CIA Director William Casey to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States to negotiate an increase in their oil production to drive down the price of oil and wreck the Soviet economy.
And today that would be a twofer and undermine Iran as well.
President Reagan also engaged in a well-planned military build-up to challenge the Soviets on another economic front. He correctly saw that the Soviet Union was incapable of keeping pace with the American economy’s ability to support a 600-ship Navy, advanced aircraft production and the “Star Wars” missile defense system.
Nothing has changed in that Russia still relies on its energy sector to prop up its economy and the very countries that plan to pass along the Patriot missiles to Ukraine continue to buy energy from Russia, thereby guaranteeing its ability to keep the war going.
If President Trump truly wants to end Russia’s war on Ukraine without American boots on the ground, the first thing he must do is wean Europe from Russian energy. Cutting the flow of European energy payments to Moscow would destroy the economic foundation upon which the Russian state rests and terminate its ability to make war.
Absent such decisive action on President Trump’s part his bold demands for peace will simply result in an endless series of meaningless “negotiations” similar to the ones conducted with Iran.
George Rasley is editor of Richard Viguerie's ConservativeHQ.com and is a veteran of over 300 political campaigns. A member of American MENSA, he served on the staff of Vice President Dan Quayle, as Director of Policy and Communication for Congressman Adam Putnam (FL-12) then Vice Chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee's Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, and as spokesman for retired Rep. Mac Thornberry formerly a member of the House Intelligence Committee and Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
- Trump Ukraine policy
- Ukraine Russia war
- Ukraine aid
- NATO
- Vladimir Putin
- Russian economy
- Trump diplomacy
- Russian bombing
- Russia Ukraine talks
- ceasefire
- US Russia sanctions
- Joe Biden foreign policy
- Reagan strategy Soviet Union
- Russian energy revenues
- world oil prices
