The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely Republican Primary Voters would vote for Vance if the primary were held today, but that’s down from 62% last November. Twenty percent (20%) would vote for Rubio, who has doubled his support since November.
The survey showed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 7%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 6%, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 2%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 2%, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin at 2%, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 2%. Another three percent (3%) of GOP primary voters say they would vote for some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
And other surveys have returned similar results.
With all other potential candidates in the single digits, Vice President J.D. Vance continues to lead other potential Republican contenders for the party’s 2028 presidential nomination, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has gained popularity.
Voters were first asked how likely it is that they will vote in the 2028 presidential primaries. Eighty-nine percent (89%) say it’s likely that they will vote in one of the two major party presidential primaries, including 74% who are Very Likely to vote in the 2028 primaries.
Those who were at least somewhat likely to vote in the 2028 primaries were then asked which party’s presidential primary they would be more likely to vote in – 47% saying they would vote in the Democratic primary and 43% in the Republican primary. This two-stage screen yielded 385 Likely Republican Primary Voters.
Among likely 2028 primary voters, significantly more men (51%) than women voters (36%) say they’ll vote in the Republican primary. Black and Hispanic voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic 2028 primary, as are 55% of voters under 30.
Among Likely Republican Primary Voters, Vance is preferred by more men (51%) than women (42%), while more of Rubio’s support comes from women (24%) than men (17%). Female GOP primary voters are much more likely than men to say they’re not sure which candidate they’d vote for.
Vance does best among voters in their 30s, while Rubio’s strongest support comes from older voters – including 30% of those 65 and older. DeSantis has more than twice as much support among voters under 50 as he does among those 50 and older.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters earning less than $30,000 a year are most likely to say they’ll vote in the 2028 Democratic primary. Among Likely Republican Primary Voters, Vance’s strongest support comes from those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000, while Rubio does best among voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 a year.
Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 83% say they’re likely to vote in the 2028 Democratic primaries. Among Likely Republican Primary Voters who voted for Trump in 2024, Vance gets 54% support to Rubio’s 21%.
The survey of 1,007 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 9 and 12-13, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. To see survey question wording, click here.
The survey showed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 7%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 6%, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 2%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 2%, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin at 2%, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 2%. Another three percent (3%) of GOP primary voters say they would vote for some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
And other surveys have returned similar results.
With all other potential candidates in the single digits, Vice President J.D. Vance continues to lead other potential Republican contenders for the party’s 2028 presidential nomination, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has gained popularity.
Voters were first asked how likely it is that they will vote in the 2028 presidential primaries. Eighty-nine percent (89%) say it’s likely that they will vote in one of the two major party presidential primaries, including 74% who are Very Likely to vote in the 2028 primaries.
Those who were at least somewhat likely to vote in the 2028 primaries were then asked which party’s presidential primary they would be more likely to vote in – 47% saying they would vote in the Democratic primary and 43% in the Republican primary. This two-stage screen yielded 385 Likely Republican Primary Voters.
Among likely 2028 primary voters, significantly more men (51%) than women voters (36%) say they’ll vote in the Republican primary. Black and Hispanic voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic 2028 primary, as are 55% of voters under 30.
Among Likely Republican Primary Voters, Vance is preferred by more men (51%) than women (42%), while more of Rubio’s support comes from women (24%) than men (17%). Female GOP primary voters are much more likely than men to say they’re not sure which candidate they’d vote for.
Vance does best among voters in their 30s, while Rubio’s strongest support comes from older voters – including 30% of those 65 and older. DeSantis has more than twice as much support among voters under 50 as he does among those 50 and older.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters earning less than $30,000 a year are most likely to say they’ll vote in the 2028 Democratic primary. Among Likely Republican Primary Voters, Vance’s strongest support comes from those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000, while Rubio does best among voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 a year.
Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, 83% say they’re likely to vote in the 2028 Democratic primaries. Among Likely Republican Primary Voters who voted for Trump in 2024, Vance gets 54% support to Rubio’s 21%.
The survey of 1,007 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 9 and 12-13, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. To see survey question wording, click here.
