The “generic congressional ballot” is often more a test of the incumbent president’s standing with the electorate than it is a predictor of congressional election results in November. As President Trump’s popularity has seesawed over the war to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon the Democratic Party now leads Republicans by four points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.
A recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 42% would vote for the Republican. Five percent (5%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another eight percent (7%) are not sure.
However, there is some good news for Republicans. The advantage for Democrats has decreased two points since May, when they led by six points, 47% to 41%. The position for Republicans is now a net seven points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority with President Trump on the ballot.
The Democrats’ lead is due to both greater partisan intensity and their three-point margin among independents. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 82% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% would vote for Democrats and 34% for Republicans, while 13% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 16% are undecided.
The “gender gap” is a net 14 points, with women voters preferring Democrats by a 49% to 38% margin, while men slightly favor Republicans, 45% to 43%.
Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 61% of black voters, 39% of Hispanics and 41% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 44% of whites, 27% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics and 28% of other minorities would vote Republican.
Voters under 30 favor Democrats by a 14-point margin, while Republicans have a two-point lead among those ages 40 to 64.
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 76% of conservatives would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by a 29-point margin, 54% to 25%.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of government employees and 44% of private sector workers would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while a slight plurality of retirees prefer Republicans.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats hold their widest lead among voters earning less than $30,000 a year.
Among voters who say America is going in the right direction, 80% favor Republican congressional candidates, but among those who think the country is on the wrong track, 69% would vote for Democrats.
Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 82% would vote for Republican congressional candidates, while 87% of Kamala Harris voters prefer Democrats.
The survey of 2,224 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 24-25 and 28-July 1, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. To see survey question wording, click here.
