That marks a net three-point gain for Democrats since May, when they led by a single point, 45% to 44%. Perhaps more troubling for Republicans, they now stand a net seven points worse than they did before last November’s election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.
The Democrats’ lead is mainly due to their seven-point advantage among independents. Partisan intensity is roughly equal – 86% of Democrats and 85% of Republicans would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 40% would vote for Democrats and 33% for Republicans, while 10% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 17% are undecided.
The “gender gap” is a net 14 points, as women voters prefer Democrats by an 11-point margin (49% to 38%) and men favor Republicans by a three–point margin (46% to 43%).
Forty-four percent (44%) of whites, 64% of black voters, 42% of Hispanics and 41% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 45% of whites, 24% of black voters, 45% of Hispanics and 42% of other minorities would vote Republican.
Democrats now lead by 15 points (48% to 33%) among voters under 30, and also have a seven-point lead (50% to 43%) among those 65 and older. Republicans hold a one-point advantage among voters between the ages of 40 and 64.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate, while 73% of conservatives would vote Republican. Democrats lead by a 22-point margin – 52% to 30% – among moderate voters.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of government employees, 45% of private sector workers and 48% of retirees would vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats do best on both the low end and the very top, leading by 18 points (52% to 34%) among voters earning less than $30,000 a year and by seven points (47% to 40%) among those with annual incomes above $200,000.
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election would vote for Democrats in next year’s congressional election, while 83% of those who voted for Donald Trump would vote for Republicans.
Remarkably, many voters give Trump a poor rating on economic issues, despite strong approval from Republicans and what is, according to any objective measure, a booming economy.
The survey of 2,288 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 13-17 and 20, 2025 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. To see survey question wording, click here.
- 2026 polls
- Rasmussen Reports
- generic congressional ballot
- Trump approval rating
- Independent Voters
- Gender Gap
- White Voters
- Black Voters
- Hispanic Voters
- Young voters
- Conservative Voters
- Trump economic ratings
