President Donald Trump is meeting today with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ostensibly to sign an agreement that will swap rare earth minerals for continued support for Ukraine’s effort to stave-off the Russian invasion that began three years ago.
During the Biden years many conservatives and MAGA Movement activists were skeptical of American involvement in the Russia – Ukraine war. They questioned the vast sums being poured into one of Europe’s most corrupt countries with no accountability, the American taxpayer underwriting virtually the entire Ukrainian government budget and the lack of any coherent or realistic plan for Ukraine to achieve its outsized war aims of ejecting Russia from all occupied territory.
And there was a broadly shared view that the United States had no compelling national interest in a border war in Eastern Europe far from any American strategic or commercial centers.
On the eve of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Senator Rand Paul wrote, “From our perspective, Ukraine should not and cannot be our problem to solve. It is not our place to defend them in a struggle with their longtime adversary, Russia. There is no national security interest for the United States.”
William Ruger, President of the American Institute for Economic Research, a veteran of the war in Afghanistan who was President Donald Trump’s nominee to be ambassador to Afghanistan, writing for The National Interest put it this way, "...those worried by events in Ukraine can rest assured that they mean less to the United States than it might seem, especially if they have been listening only to the play-by-play commentary provided by Washington mandarins who tell Americans they must do more while ignoring the dangers of doing so and lack of vital interests to justify growing risks of involvement. Fortunately, the permanent features of the world that support America’s safety and the conditions of our prosperity remain largely unaffected by the conflict."
And pointing out that the U.S. was spending the equivalent of the budgets of the U.S. Transportation, Labor, and Commerce Departments combined on Ukraine, Joshua Shifrinson, writing for the CATO Institute observed, “…definition and discussion of how U.S. efforts in Ukraine contribute to overarching U.S. national objectives and interests are broadly lacking, reduced primarily to gesticulations toward broad principles that might justify the American response in Ukraine so far. Amid the continuing war and ongoing calls for the United States to ‘do more,’ the question remains: what, if any, are the United States’ strategic interests in Ukraine—and how might the United States best service them?”
Other than general statements that the United States has a national interest in opposing aggression and protecting the borders of existing nation-states, no one on the pro-war side of the debate ever answered that question, “what, if any, are the United States’ strategic interests in Ukraine?”
The pending agreement between the United States and Ukraine that would grant American access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals has suddenly provided a new and more compelling answer to that question – access to strategic materials crucial to the 21st century economy.
According to the New York Times, Ukraine controls more than 100 major deposits of critical minerals, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics, along with modest oil and natural gas reserves.
Titanium is used in construction, airplanes, orthopedic implants and as an additive in paint and cosmetics, including sunscreen, among many other things. Titanium mines in central Ukraine account for about 6 percent of global production, according to Ukrainian media.
Lithium is a crucial element in batteries, including those in electric vehicles, and in other industrial products, including some medications. Ukraine has a third of Europe’s total reserves, although some sites are in war-contested areas. Before the war with Russia, Ukrainian officials suggested to Elon Musk that he invest in Ukrainian lithium mines.
Uranium is used in nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons. Ukraine has the largest uranium reserves in Europe.
Rare earths are a group of more than a dozen metals, much less abundant than titanium or lithium, that are used in many high-tech sectors, including green energy, electronics and aerospace. Ukraine has substantial reserves that are mostly untapped, and it is unclear how expensive they would be to extract.
While President Trump continues to publicly say he wants an end to the war on humanitarian (and American budget) considerations, the minerals deal would put the American – Ukraine relationship in a whole new light.
Ukraine would no longer be an obscure country in the heart of Eastern Europe, it would be one of America’s primary sources of the materials upon which the 21st century economy will be based. But that calculation only works if there is peace in the region that makes exploitation of those resources possible.
Even more importantly to Ukraine, such an agreement would give the United States a clear national interest in maintaining an independent partner in the exploitation of those resources and provide Ukraine the funds with which to rebuild their economy and national infrastructure. And that partnership might just be Ukraine’s best security guarantee against further Russian aggression.
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