This symptom has manifested itself in the Left’s complete breakdown over the plans by Texas, California, and possibly other states, such as Florida and New York, to redraw the lines of their congressional districts.
But they are actually two completely different things.
Apportioning congressional districts among the states is federal responsibility based on the census and under the Constitution can only be done once every ten years. So, despite the “mid-decade census dictatorship” lunacy the number of seats a given state has in the House of Representatives isn’t going to change until after the 2030 census, and Democrat states like New York, Rhode Island and California will retain their undeserved seats in Congress for another five years.
However, the boundaries of the districts are a state responsibility and are drawn according to state law. So, states are free to redraw their boundaries whenever their law allows.
Near term, Democrats are afraid Republicans have finally gotten tough enough to gerrymander the soon to be redrawn districts according to the Democrat playbook, squeeze out some Democrat incumbents in 2026 and thereby pick up some badly-needed seats in the House of Representatives.
That’s the Democrats’ short game worry about the Texas redistricting battle.
But Democrats are equally afraid of President Trump’s proposed mid-decade census for long game reasons, and a very secret short game reason.
Long game, Democrats see the mid-decade count, with its proposal to identify illegal aliens and other non-citizens, as a threat to reducing the number of congressional districts in their base in high-tax, illegal alien and welfare magnet states like New York, Massachusetts, California and Minnesota.
"Congressional representation is a zero-sum proposition. When one state gains a seat in Congress due to the presences of illegal aliens, American citizens in another state necessarily lose representation," Ira Mehlman, media director at the anti-immigration Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), told Newsweek when asked about Trump's plan.
If illegal aliens aren’t counted toward congressional apportionment, "By some estimates, California's large illegal alien population resulted in that state getting four to five more representatives than it would have if illegal aliens were excluded for this purpose. The system actually rewards states that enact policies that draw illegal aliens," observed Mr. Mehlman.
FAIR put the figure of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. at around 18 million. Under that number, the undocumented share of the U.S. population would be about 5 percent.
"The inclusion of illegal aliens in the Census not only impacts apportionment of representation, but potentially the outcome of national elections," Mehlman said, arguing for a census count that strips out undocumented residents.
"Each state's electoral vote count is based on the number of seats it holds in the House. Thus, the current system of counting illegal aliens for congressional apportionment could determine the outcome of a close presidential election," Mehlman concluded.
That’s the long game worry for the Democrats.
But here’s an unspoken short game impact that may be as bad or worse for Democrats because it hits them in the pocketbook – and you never want to get between a Democrat and someone else’s money.
As our friend Steve Moore explained in a recent issue of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity Hotline (you really should subscribe and it’s free) in 2022, the Census Bureau admitted that egregious statistical errors likely shortchanged some states in their federal funding and congressional representation, while other states got more funding and representation than they are entitled to.
According to Steve Moore’s analysis, it appears that at least three extra House seats went to Democrats due to overcounts in states like New York. The census failed to accurately account for people who had fled locked-down blue states during COVID. See map above. The orange states had overcounts.
Florida and Texas had big undercounts. Blue states like Rhode Island and New York kept Congressional seats they should have lost. Remember, there was a lot of chatter about the possibility that the 2024 presidential election could have been decided by one or two electoral votes.
The miscount was even bigger when you consider that the last Census counted between 10 and 20 million illegal non-citizens in many states.
Trump sought to reform the 2020 Census count by attempting to include a citizenship question, but he lost on procedural grounds.
Steve Moore thinks that Trump probably can exclude illegals from any mid-decade census because federal law says the Commerce Secretary can determine the form and content of a mid-decade count. A mid-decade Census can't be used to reapportion House seats but can be used for allocating federal funds among states.
That means Democrat states could lose billions of dollars in federal distributions of your tax dollars that go there based on their inflated illegal alien populations. And that’s the secret reason Democrats are apoplectic about a mid-decade count that identifies non-citizens and excludes them from any federal funds distribution formula.
- Trump redistricting
- mid-decade census
- Texas
- California
- Florida
- New York
- Constitution redistricting
- Commerce Department
- Trump derangement syndrome
- Congressional redistricting
- Republican Party
- Democrat incumbents
- illegal aliens
- congressional representation
- Electoral College
- Federal Funding
- Census Bureau
