The Washington Post just announced that Donald Trump would've won New Mexico and Nevada if elections required proof of citizenship. According to the newspaper’s analysis, Nevada becomes R+6.3, New Mexico ends up R+3.3, Connecticut goes down to D+4.9, Washington goes down to D+4.7, even Maryland drops to just D+8.8. And other Blue States would become closer races if the SAVE America Act is passed.
"The SAVE America Act could swing key states to the right," the self-styled national paper of record reported. Did they just admit that election fraud exists and non-citizens are voting to swing elections to Democrats?
The SAVE America Act is currently hung up in the Senate, where its prospects are increasingly unlikely despite strong pressure from Trump and the Republican grassroots for the Republican majority to pass it. As the WaPo observed, up until now analysis of the legislation has largely focused on aggregate national statistics: how many millions of Americans lack the documents the bill would require to register to vote, and whether more Democrats or Republicans would be affected.
However, as the Washington Post article points out, federal power is won state by state, and their new analysis of survey data reveals that the bill’s effects in swing states would be more complicated — and, in some cases, more favorable to Republicans — than has previously been understood.
For the article the Washington Post staff analyzed the 2024 Survey of the Performance of American Elections — a post-election survey of 10,200 registered voters across all 50 states and D.C. — to estimate the SAVE America Act’s effect on individual states.
The bill would require proof of citizenship (such as a passport or birth certificate plus photo ID) to register to vote, while many standard photo IDs would suffice at the ballot box. Around 95 percent of registered voters hold a qualifying photo ID, but only an estimated 88 percent have ready access to the required documentary proof of citizenship.
At the national level, the survey estimates that 89 percent of Democrats and 90 percent of Republicans hold qualifying citizenship documents, a difference that is not statistically significant. The most significant factor is economic, with a 15-percentage-point difference in documentation rates between the poorest and wealthiest voters.
On a state-by-state basis, in 13 of the 15 most competitive states across the past two presidential elections, the partisan gap is statistically indistinguishable from zero. For battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona, the Post’s analysts could not determine whether the bill would advantage either party.
One clear exception is New Mexico. There, Democrats are an estimated 13 percentage points less likely than Republicans to hold qualifying registration documents; had the SAVE America Act been law in 2024, Trump would likely have won the state.
Even if the bill gets through the Senate now, this statistically significant gap might have only a modest impact on the midterms, because the SAVE America Act requires proof of citizenship only to register to vote — leaving those already on the rolls unaffected.
However, as voter rolls are purged and updated, over time requiring proof of citizenship could flip New Mexico to an electorate where Republicans have a 3.3-percentage-point advantage.
Likewise in Nevada, requiring proof of citizenship could result in a shift of 5.3 points in favor of the GOP, which, all else being equal, would push it from battleground to comfortably Republican.
The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act was approved by the House of Representatives last year and is now under consideration in the Senate. A Rasmussen Reports survey found eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans, 43% of Democrats and 60% of voters not affiliated with either major party at least somewhat support the SAVE Act.
Other polls show similar levels of support.
The Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that 63% of Likely U.S. Voters support the SAVE Act, including 47% who Strongly Support the legislation. Thirty-two percent (32%) are opposed to the bill, including 21% who Strongly Oppose the bill.
This means a substantial majority of voters want the Senate to pass the SAVE Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections. What’s more, those who “Strongly Support the legislation” outnumber those who “who Strongly Oppose the bill” by more than two-to-one.
Rasmussen found eighty-five percent (83%) of voters believe only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections. Only 11% disagree. This finding is nearly unchanged from our August 2024 survey. Among those who think only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections, 67% support the SAVE Act.
Majorities of every political category – 90% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 80% of unaffiliated voters – say only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections.
Support for the SAVE Act also crosses racial lines, Majorities of every racial category – 88% of whites, 69% of black voters, 74% of Hispanics and 81% of other minorities – believe only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections.
Among those who voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 92% support the SAVE Act, while 58% of Kamala Harris voters are opposed to the legislation that would require proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.
Without fair elections, nothing else we fight for holds. There is no reason for further delay on passing the SAVE America Act. The Capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121, call today to demand Senate Majority Leader John Thune and all Senate Republicans force passage of this essential legislation.
Call your Senator at (202) 224-3121 NOW and demand he or she vote YES on the SAVE America Act.
"The SAVE America Act could swing key states to the right," the self-styled national paper of record reported. Did they just admit that election fraud exists and non-citizens are voting to swing elections to Democrats?
The SAVE America Act is currently hung up in the Senate, where its prospects are increasingly unlikely despite strong pressure from Trump and the Republican grassroots for the Republican majority to pass it. As the WaPo observed, up until now analysis of the legislation has largely focused on aggregate national statistics: how many millions of Americans lack the documents the bill would require to register to vote, and whether more Democrats or Republicans would be affected.
However, as the Washington Post article points out, federal power is won state by state, and their new analysis of survey data reveals that the bill’s effects in swing states would be more complicated — and, in some cases, more favorable to Republicans — than has previously been understood.
For the article the Washington Post staff analyzed the 2024 Survey of the Performance of American Elections — a post-election survey of 10,200 registered voters across all 50 states and D.C. — to estimate the SAVE America Act’s effect on individual states.
The bill would require proof of citizenship (such as a passport or birth certificate plus photo ID) to register to vote, while many standard photo IDs would suffice at the ballot box. Around 95 percent of registered voters hold a qualifying photo ID, but only an estimated 88 percent have ready access to the required documentary proof of citizenship.
At the national level, the survey estimates that 89 percent of Democrats and 90 percent of Republicans hold qualifying citizenship documents, a difference that is not statistically significant. The most significant factor is economic, with a 15-percentage-point difference in documentation rates between the poorest and wealthiest voters.
On a state-by-state basis, in 13 of the 15 most competitive states across the past two presidential elections, the partisan gap is statistically indistinguishable from zero. For battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona, the Post’s analysts could not determine whether the bill would advantage either party.
One clear exception is New Mexico. There, Democrats are an estimated 13 percentage points less likely than Republicans to hold qualifying registration documents; had the SAVE America Act been law in 2024, Trump would likely have won the state.
Even if the bill gets through the Senate now, this statistically significant gap might have only a modest impact on the midterms, because the SAVE America Act requires proof of citizenship only to register to vote — leaving those already on the rolls unaffected.
However, as voter rolls are purged and updated, over time requiring proof of citizenship could flip New Mexico to an electorate where Republicans have a 3.3-percentage-point advantage.
Likewise in Nevada, requiring proof of citizenship could result in a shift of 5.3 points in favor of the GOP, which, all else being equal, would push it from battleground to comfortably Republican.
The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act was approved by the House of Representatives last year and is now under consideration in the Senate. A Rasmussen Reports survey found eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans, 43% of Democrats and 60% of voters not affiliated with either major party at least somewhat support the SAVE Act.
Other polls show similar levels of support.
The Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that 63% of Likely U.S. Voters support the SAVE Act, including 47% who Strongly Support the legislation. Thirty-two percent (32%) are opposed to the bill, including 21% who Strongly Oppose the bill.
This means a substantial majority of voters want the Senate to pass the SAVE Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections. What’s more, those who “Strongly Support the legislation” outnumber those who “who Strongly Oppose the bill” by more than two-to-one.
Rasmussen found eighty-five percent (83%) of voters believe only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections. Only 11% disagree. This finding is nearly unchanged from our August 2024 survey. Among those who think only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections, 67% support the SAVE Act.
Majorities of every political category – 90% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 80% of unaffiliated voters – say only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections.
Support for the SAVE Act also crosses racial lines, Majorities of every racial category – 88% of whites, 69% of black voters, 74% of Hispanics and 81% of other minorities – believe only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote in U.S. elections.
Among those who voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 92% support the SAVE Act, while 58% of Kamala Harris voters are opposed to the legislation that would require proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.
Without fair elections, nothing else we fight for holds. There is no reason for further delay on passing the SAVE America Act. The Capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121, call today to demand Senate Majority Leader John Thune and all Senate Republicans force passage of this essential legislation.
Call your Senator at (202) 224-3121 NOW and demand he or she vote YES on the SAVE America Act.
